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Writer's pictureStéphan
Feb 23 min read

EU-UKR 50bn / #META #AMZN up, #KRE #CSI down / OPEC+ unch / U.S ISM stronger / NFP next




  • US manufacturing output hits highest level since October 2022

  • Barry Sternlicht just gave a VERY thoughtful interview about the growing troubles in commercial real estate, ''the office market has an existential crisis right now... it's a $3 trillion dollar asset class that's probably worth $1.8 trillion [now]'' and WSJ - Commercial Property losses hammer banks on three continents

  • BoE most members called for unchanged, 2 wanted a cut and 1 a hike!

  • Polestar : the car without a rear window, and possibly bankrupt

  • UK (probably elsewhere too) Wind Farms are overstating their output — and Consumers are paying for it (always the consumers getting the check book out..)

  • EU agrees on an additional 50 billion euro support package for Ukraine

  • OPEC+ will stick with oil supply cutbacks this quarter to avert a surplus and buoy prices. The group plans to decide in early March whether to extend curbs into the second quarter, the next focus for crude traders

  • Great #Brexit chat below with Rees Mogg - totally caught out in his fantasy world

  • Sentiment : boosted again by lower rates (first-Powell pushed back on March but market still has 140+bps of cuts for 2024) and by #META astonishing revenues, has to be said (1st dividend and $50bn share buybacks...META added $250bn of market cap after hours..just like this, driving wealth effect higher!), and AMZN #AWS mainly, AAPL slow in China but ,JPN, EU, China data deflationary still while U.S data remains strong, ISM yesterday showed a rise in prices paid. First employment data of 2024 coming up! meanwhile CSI hits new lows again >>> Powell might be right, the U.S economy is actually accelerating in short-term, seems overall, worldwide manufacturing confidence improving as factories shrug off Red Sea concerns


 

Markets :

  • XAGUSD - 2024 the year of the break out - chart below

  • GOLD would appear to like life above $2K

  • Mag 7 powering ahead, regional banks hammered last few days (commercial real estate, inadequate loan provisions & MtM losses to bond portfolios), >CSI, SHCOMP lower again, while DAX 17K again and SPX, QQQ regaining highs very easily

  • USDollar swinging within small ranges, no great trend anywhere, CHFJPY continues to hurt many specs trying to short it, clearly BoJ YCC tweak in March will be needed to turn this cross around (SNB on hold doing little it seems)

  • Crude down $3 because peace has apparently broken out in ME, as per Qatari media, news would appear not to confirm this though

 





Couldn't fail to notice in report - got to be the headline of the day ?? "AI has begun showing up in financial results - just more on expenses than revenue."


Japanese bank tanks over 20% after flagging losses tied to U.S. commercial property (msn.com) >>>> banks with too much concentration of risk in US commercial property won't be spared!





​​How UK Energy Prices Are Inflated by Wind Farms Overestimating Power Output (bloomberg.com) shocking... and you wonder why consumers are sceptical about 'green' energy and its costs



Brilliant! #brexit


SILVER - 2024 - the year of the break out


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