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Dec 28, 20223 min read

EZ NatGas prices / TSLA / MOVE index on the move / China & HK further reopening, BUT!




  • EZ NatGas prices back where they traded in June before the HUGE price rally!

  • Italy's BTP's... 10y yields around 4.65%...on course to 5%. With Italian public debts near €2.75tn, this will be very expensive for Rome in the long term...

  • Bund 10y yields highest in 12years around 2.5%

  • TSLA down 10% again, sounds like capitulation (ARKK new lows etc..) - the share price was never about how good the cars were, it was a cult, and now the congregation has lost belief, if TSLA does ''an ARKK'', and why not, it's heading back to $40/50 overtime

  • Z's latest : "...think about inflation with geopolitics, resource nationalism ... in mind as the next set of non-linear shocks that will keep inflation above target, forcing CBs to hike interest rates above 5% and keep them high" / Thread below

  • WSJ / What is a bomb cyclone ?

  • HK scraps COVID test for arrivals, vaccine pass, COVID patients no longer have to quarantine in Hong Kong as restrictions are lifted >> HSI 20K....China reopening borders leads other countries to restrict entry

  • BOJ debated rising wages, fading deflation risks at Dec meeting

  • Switzerland urges détente between Serbia and Kosovo

  • Apple’s shipment of iPhone to drop significantly

 
Markets :

  • UST spread 3mo10s is now some 50bps steeper since the lows we saw in mid December >>> MOVE index is on the move again, you know what this means if it continues.. >>> it's almost as if now the 10y UST yield have to notice the move in 10y German yields..

  • MOVE vs VIX, remember the ''yields vs SPX500'' charts.. it will matter if this continues, ,let alone intensify

  • SPX500 pretty 'steady' in low volumes, more focus on QQQ/TSLA/ARKK etc lagging as per usual, as they should with yields higher

  • USD stable overall, though USDJPY (and CROSSJPY's) reacting to higher yields/steeper curve

 



"Epic Thread": Elon Musk Reacts To Bizarre Tweets By Russian Official's 2023 Predictions (ndtv.com) - pretty sure this didn't help the share price last few days either..







Munger, the long-time investment partner and friend of fellow billionaire Warren Buffett, says he doesn’t understand why people today aren’t more content with what they have, especially compared to harder times throughout history.



Not all that straight forward!


a classic economist view...good and bad, bottom line, here at PVM we continue what we have been doing all along, invest for our clients, selecting and investing in solid names that are going to be able to live with 'higher for longer'...all of them with a very solid yield and better metrics than your standard equity Index..



why not !


what a year it was..good grief


have a great day

Team PVM


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