FED's Dudley suddenly talked 50bps, markets went on to price that risk last night! >>> GOLD breaking highs, Silver long way to go, Plat and Pall also on the move, great value still in the #GDX (previous metals on the move higher, while industrials struggle courtesy of China debacle - some argue China markets a good bet if Kamala wins - we shall see...)
FED pricing 36bps for next week and a total of 115bps priced in for 2024
USDollar in big danger overall, USDJPY through 140 will send a few alarm bells across FX world, 1.1200-50+ EURUSD, 1.3200+ CABLE 0.6800+ AUDUSD etc very key medium to long-term
Both the WSJ and FT reported that the U.S. rate cut decision will be a “line ball call” surprising markets that had assumed it would start off with a 25bpt move. Fed Fund futures imply a 43% chance it will be 50bpts up from 28% yesterday. The WSJ suggested the Fed is nervous about keeping rates too high for too long given that inflation and hiring are slowing down, though it didn’t quote any inside source
#NVDA obviously matters a lot to markets in general : nicely explained here, see Gamma Thread below >>> it is about 20% of most Tech ETF's, is it 7% of NDX, passive money is now more than half of the market, when rest of the market buys or sells #NVDA it matters greatly
ECB cut the depo rate by 25bp, as widely expected, and raised its core HICP inflation forecast for this and next year despite revising down GDP growth and wage growth and lowering its unit profit assumptions.
The US Treasury on Thursday reported a $380 billion federal budget deficit for August, a massive shift from the $89 billion surplus in August 2023
BOJ's Tamura: Cannot say whether we could raise rates by year-end >>> having seen JPY firm some 10-15%, looks like they may get cold feet
Brussels questions whether Starmer really wants a Brexit reset >>> don't mess his up Keir !!
Flights are getting more expensive again as airlines scale back their growth plans
Boeing workers going on strike after 96% vote for walkout
SpotGamma on X: "Yesterday $NVDA traded 6.2mm contracts (11th largest since jan '20). The top 11 contracts by volume, all with 6 figure volume, were 9/13 exp. 8 of those 11 were calls. You have to go down to line 38 to find a contract > 2 weeks out. NVDA is ~7% of SPX/NDX and +20% of major https://t.co/FqEdPAjtj0" / X
could they actually push him out.... JChoe on X: "Thread of actual quotes about Trump: "Trump is a fucking moron." - Rex Tillerson, Trump's first Secretary of State 1/6 https://t.co/v5GT6AQ5Cz" / X
Reminds me of something!
Comments