Fed : Kashkari remained hawkish in his latest essay. He was agnostic about long-term r-star but saw upside risks to short-term r-star, which is relevant for the terminal rate of the next rate cutting cycle. He appears to be open-minded to potential rate hikes if the Fed is misperceiving the neutral policy rate. Druckenmiller to Powell : “Don’t go on 60 Minutes, you’re not a rock star; you’re the FED chair” >>> Vol 'crush' after main events FOMC/earnings/QRA etc, sharpish back to lows (MOVE index and VIX), pushing risk higher again pretty easily
The New Cold War - The West must stand up to China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, or it will be doomed. Historian Niall Ferguson on how to win the epic confrontation with the “Axis of Ill Will (Weltwoche article)
China slowed its official state of Gold adding “officially” just 2 tonnes of it in April, this is the lowest monthly increase since they began monthly purchases began a couple years ago, the rapid price increase cooling the golden whale's buying
JPM : The US consumer’s net worth “has increased ~$37T, or +33.6%, since the beginning of 2020, including $5T in realized capital gains from 2020 – 2022
SNCF : The CEO just got fired because of that deal with unions
Putin inaugurated as president for fifth term with Russia under tight grip
Oil falls as course of Gaza war remains uncertain, while cease-fire talks hang in the balance
M&A will not help with looming copper shortage, warns Barrick chief Amid BHP approach for Anglo, prolific dealmaker says consolidation does not guarantee more production
Apple's AI strategy includes making its own chips
Bank of Japan issues stronger warning over yen's impact on policy | Reuters talk talk, interventions not backed by hikes don't work, for long, but they hurt short-term markets
Stanley Druckenmiller gives Biden's economic policies an 'F', blames the Fed for reigniting inflation (cnbc.com) >>> Squawk Box on X: "Investor Stanley Druckenmiller on Bidenomics: "If I were a professor, I'd give them an 'F'." https://t.co/WfsU4ecO6y" / X (twitter.com) WELL worth a listen - just 3mins
The New Cold War (weltwoche.ch) The New Cold War
The West must stand up to China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, or it will be doomed. Historian Niall Ferguson on how to win the epic confrontation with the “Axis of Ill Will.” >>> well worth a read
China’s overcapacity dilemma solvable with ‘painful’ industrial revamp, scholars say | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)
Such a big world out there ! Carl Quintanilla on X: "JPMORGAN: The US consumer’s net worth “has increased ~$37T, or +33.6%, since the beginning of 2020, including $5T in realized capital gains from 2020 – 2022. Those capital gains, even if taxed at 37%, means that [Fed models] are undercounting Consumer cash levels by at least $3T.… https://t.co/57IDjtigOm" / X (twitter.com)
Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is absolutely priceless. And probably the most frightening clip you'll ever watch on the people in charge of the US economy. Jared Bernstein is literally the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the main agency advising Biden on economic policy https://t.co/1b31FPFPCQ" / X (twitter.com) I mean surely not...
How wild boars are threatening Italy’s prosciutto ham industry (yahoo.com) How wild boars are threatening Italy’s prosciutto ham industry >>> you don't read headlines like this every day!
USDCHF - must hold around here 0.90+ to continue to push higher
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