top of page
Writer's pictureStéphan
Aug 223 min read

FOMC minutes, as exp / U.S payroll revised -818K / Jackson Hole kicks off today, statement tomorrow



  • Powell at Jackson Hole : markets have been ripping higher, back to all time highs (pretty much), Why talk 50bps ? credit spreads are just fine, bonds are steady... call for 25bps looks likely IMHO, thus 100bps is a little too much priced in for 2024.. >>> we had the fastest rally in risk (pretty much ever) last 2-3weeks with softer USD >> beware snap back the other way is Powell doesn't satisfy markets, which are hoping to hear 50bps in Sep >>> hedge USD shorts (reduce-buy USDCALLS), UST longs, and long risks going into JH Friday afternoon

  • US PAYROLLS revised down 818K in preliminary revision (for 1y between March 2023 and 2024)>>> Ai, quantum computing, 1000's of economists and they still can't even come close to being right.. and the likes of China gets criticised for their data... (China's population is 3x bigger..), amazing really, ''the largest revision in 15years''

  • FOMC minutes: The FOMC minutes to the July meeting suggested a rate cut is likely in September. The minutes stated that “the vast majority” of participants believed that if data before September prints within expectations “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.”

  • Blackstone : Optimism and Uncertainty on the Menu for Jackson Hole - good read

  • Ross Garnaut has cautioned Australia against putting all its eggs in the AUKUS basket at a time when relations with China are growing ever more important

  • Citigroup Inc. says the carry trade is back, but with a key difference: hedge funds are borrowing US dollars rather than the yen for their wagers on emerging market >>> this IS a huge switch if indeed confirmed

  • The latest independent forecasts for UK economic growth have been released, The average for 2024 is up to a new high of +1.1% - having begun the year at just +0.4%. Heading into the Budget in late October the OBR now looks a bit light at +0.8%

  • OZ : Sun Cable: Plibersek approves first stage of world’s biggest solar and battery project

  • Crude Oil falls to lowest price since January


 

Vast Majority' Saw September Cut As Likely Appropriate

Downside Risks To Employment Seen As Increased

Almost All' Officials Exp Continued Disinflation

Saw Upside Risks To Inflation As Diminished

Some Saw Higher Risk Of More Serious Labour Deterioration





Significance of US Treasury Auctions: US Treasury auctions help fund government operations and provide a real-time indicator of investor confidence in the U.S. government's creditworthiness, with auction results influencing interest rates and impacting global financial markets.

Investor Insights from Auctions: Treasury auctions offer valuable information about market dynamics, including demand for safe-haven assets, inflation expectations, and potential signals about future Federal Reserve actions. The yields and demand observed in these auctions reflect broader economic sentiments and expectations.

Key Metrics to Watch: Several metrics, such as the bid-to-cover ratio, high yield, tail and stop-through, and the participation of indirect, direct, and primary dealer bidders, provide insights into the strength and nature of demand at Treasury auctions. These metrics help investors understand market appetite, potential risks, and the overall health of the bond market











42 views0 comments

Comments

bottom of page