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Writer's pictureStéphan

French elections : RN+LR possible, credit rating risk / #EURO / #NFIB / Large vs Small caps divergence on extremes / U.S CPI and FOMC up next today



  • French election, volatile few weeks ahead : OAT's weaker, Macron's election gamble triggering anger and chaos in his party (and others). Republican leader talked about making an alliance with Le Pen (eventually denied), there were rumours of Macron resigning (denied), clearly a LOT going underneath, it's all about alliances! >>> but what a gamble Macron has taken, not lost on the most senior EU officials in Paris & Brussels.. >>> BUND vs OAT spread 10y is what the market is keeping an eye on !

  • EURUSD - been consolidating for 18months, will a confirmed move to the right in France trigger a sharp EURO fall ? possibly >>>>point is if you need to hedge, hedge now (spot and vols super attractive)

  • EU to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese EVs, US Weighs More Limits on China’s Access to Chips Needed for AI

  • Pimco expects more US regional bank failures as the "real wave of distress is just starting"

  • Bernie Sanders wants to subpoena Novo Nordisk over high Ozempic and Wegovy prices. Novo Nordisk said a subpoena is unnecessary because the company has cooperated with all of the senator's requests

  • China’s consumer inflation remained stable in May, while the decline in producer prices showed signs of easing, indicating sluggish demand amid a prolonged property downturn in the world’s second-largest economy

  • Russell 2000 / S&P 500 keeps plunging to new cycle lows ... ratio now back to where it was in April 2001, Growth vs Value , Megacaps vs Smallcaps, pretty amazing, Ai and AAPL doing the job, #KRE underperforming SPX by the largest margin ever, etc and concentration of risk getting even more pronounced

  • #NFIB Small business optimism improved in May to best level this year

  • NatGas back to highest prices since Nov

 


France 10-Year Government Bond Yield - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News (tradingeconomics.com) huge French govt debt beginning to matter, rating agencies will be all over this - warnings coming in
















EURUSD - been consolidating for 18months, will a confirmed move to the right in France trigger a sharp EURO fall ? possibly, point is if you need to hedge, hedge now


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