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Writer's pictureStéphan

French political mess + Durov arrest, big news ? / Soft landing on everyone's radar now / FED's Daly no so fast / Canada 100% tariffs on China's EV's / Eq : rotation



  • Macron rules out left-wing government for France, in communiqué Macron rejects a government led by the New Popular Front (NPF), unprecedented situation in the history of the 5th Republic.....and Very serious charges against Telegram's CEO Pavel Durov, see below >>> all social media platform CEO's watching with high interest.....risk they could eventually face a similar 'forensic test' in future ?

  • Zuckerberg regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration to censor Covid era information online >>> translation, he fears a Trump return...

  • Middle East tensions on highs and UKR/RU firing another huge wave of strikes

  • Soft landing euphoria from most economists and strategists reached new highs over the last 48hours, while we all agree a few cuts are coming, no doubt, maybe 100bps over 12months, absolutely, but IMHO it will be hard to deliver the 200bps of cuts already priced in together with an expected 12-15% increase in earnings over the next 12months...

  • FED's Daly agreed with the chairman that ‘the time to adjust policy is upon us’, she also said that it’s too early to know the pace of coming rate cuts - pushing back on questions around current market pricing – hasn’t seen signs of ‘real’ weakness in labour markets.

  • Markets pricing and pundit euphoria about a soft landing reached a fevered pitch following JP's JH speech on Friday. While a cut is the next step, it is very unlikely that 200bps of cuts and mid-double digit earnings growth will come together in the next 12months

  • Canada to slap 100% import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles over ‘unfair' competition

  • SPX500/QQQ pretty low volumes, losing a little momentum after the huge rally in Aug and ahead of previous ATH's, DJ made a new ATH yesterday though, markets steady ahead of NVDA will will decide the fate of everything Wednesday evening! >>> big picture, if/when the FED is cutting, it is because of slower growth, thus should reinforce rotation out of hyper growth stories-QQQ and more value based stories/solid dividend and balance-sheets names, the more they have to cut, the slower growth signals it will be and thus accentuate this big rotation


 







Macron rules out left-wing government for France, political deadlock continues (yahoo.com) >>> in communiqué Macron rejects a government led by the New Popular Front (NPF), unprecedented situation in the history of the 5th Republic..

And 2024-08-26 - CP TELEGRAM .pdf (justice.fr) >>> These are very serious charges. The fact that the investigation is taking place under JUNALCO (investigating judges, the highest court in France), shows its highest level.



Everybody seems to agree and have the same view, which is when one has to be vigilant, if sentiment changes, data more key than ever







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