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G20 - geopolitics risk easing / Brainard / BoJ & BoE interventions working.. / Quants cut Eq shorts




  • World leaders will state that today’s era “must not be of war” and will condemn threats to use nuclear weapons at the G20 summit in Bali, reflecting rising global anxiety around Russia’s war against Ukraine, RU isolated, Biden meats Xi, geo-politics calming down - we can hope ! U.S. President Joe Biden said there “need not be a new Cold War” between the U.S. and China, following a three-hour summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Indonesia

  • Mr Sunak has indicated he will abandon his predecessor Liz Truss’s push to formally recategorise China as a “threat” to the UK

  • Goldman Sachs forecasts that core PCE will fall from 5.1% now to 2.9% by Dec 2023, as supply chain clearing lowers good prices, wage growth starts to slow and rents moderate. Fun fact: "1 million apartments are under construction or permitted, the largest pipeline since 1974."

  • Fed Vice Chair Brainard says it may ‘soon’ be appropriate to move to slower pace of rate hikes, she highlighted two-sided risks as rates become more restrictive

  • BoJ and BoE interventions in USDJPY and Gilts, got a lot of mockery, the whole markets were full of 'it will never work', we didn't, recall 'do not underestimate BoJ'... and here we are

  • Quants Forced to Shed $225 Billion of Short Bets in Big Squeeze - Bloomberg

  • Japan’s Economic Recovery Slammed Back into Reverse by Weak Yen - Bloomberg-Chipping In: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Takes $4 Billion Stake In Taiwanese Semiconductor Giant TSMC

 
Markets :

  • SPX500 4'050 key for 4'150 possible major resistance zone, 200dma etc, shorts have evaporated quickly and are at March 2020 lows already according to GS. Downside we need to hold 3'925 area in short-term for higher

  • USDollar stays offered, USDCHF at the cusp of major fall-out, with SNB's chatters and general $ weakness. AUDUSD major Fibo level around 0.6775, CABLE much will depend on UK budget perception tomorrow (1.25 before xmas?), USDJPY sell rallies while sub 141-142JPY, USDCNH look for further downside, geopolitics easing and China eventually reopening

  • GOLD, Silver, metals all higher, quite sharply may I add..finally

  • Crude a little softer - welcome move for inflation

 


Quants Forced to Shed $225 Billion of Short Bets in Big Squeeze - Bloomberg *Link: https://bloom.bg/3Geu8n9


World leaders will state that today’s era “must not be of war” and will condemn threats to use nuclear weapons at the G20 summit in Bali, reflecting rising global anxiety around Russia’s war against Ukraine. A draft communiqué agreed by diplomats, seen by the Financial Times and confirmed by two delegations, said: “Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy.”





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World’s biggest Crypto fund hits record 42% discount to value of #Bitcoin it holds in the wake of exchange FTX’s shock bankruptcy filing. #GBTC price continues to plunge below the value of underlying coins. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-14/-broken-crypto-fund-hits-record-42-discount-as-etfs-hum-along?sref=R17xFhjo



Japan’s Economic Recovery Slammed Back Into Reverse by Weak Yen - Bloomberg *Link: https://bloom.bg/3EzFJvW


USDCHF - always tricky these long-term charts, but just to put things in picture - downside pressure remains while we are below 0.9450 area - (for now) probably and overshoot from Friday's comments from Jordan


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