Soft landing is now 'the' absolute consensus
U.S retail sales declined (slightly) in October, as student debt payment resumed ? >>> ''After adjusting for inflation, US retail sales fell 1.6% over the last year, the 12th consecutive YoY decline'' >>> market momentum is here, the buzz/consensus is 'goldilocks sticks, cooling inflation and a strong economy for long enough to prop up market into year-end''
Biden, Xi meeting, some nice soothing words and promises to work on improving communication again, and fighting Fentanyl production! Xi tells US firms China ready to be partner and friend, Biden calling Xi a 'dictator' might not have been the best use of words !!?.. still Xi confirmed that China does not seek spheres of influence and will not fight a cold war or a hot war wiht anyone
U.S senate bill on extending debt ceiling : no spending cuts...
Taiwan : A joint ticket is forming in Taiwan that may defeat the pro-independence DPP
Berlin : opposition leader Merz confirms nuclear operator offered to turn reactor back on for cheap power
WSJ-Inflation is falling faster than expected across advanced economies, marking a turning point in central banks’ two-year battle against surging prices
UK Bond demand smashes record as investors clamor for yield (£93bn orders for £7bn bonds)
German Court deals blow to Scholz govt with budget ruling
Fed official (Daly) warns against calling time on rate-rising cycle too soon. US central bank must not claim victory over inflation prematurely, says San Francisco Fed president
About those calling for a 'hard landing' in the U.S, which is fair to talk about with nearly 125% of debt/GDP ratio, seems almost inevitable eventually, the real question is whether the hard landing comes through the real economy or the USdollar (or both) - not a call, but part of ongoing discussion with clients on the 'what if's'
Markets :
Inflation headlines came in softer confirming what everyone wanted to hear, very fast shift to 'goldilocks, soft landing consensus' >>> and now many gunning for a 'March '24 cut form Fed'... might be a little premature...core CPI is still 4%
10's UST support 4.2-4.5% in yield terms, core is still 4%
USDollar took an early hit post U.S CPI, for the likes of EURUSD, it stays bullish while above 1.0780-1.0830' area pon weekly basis
SPX500, QQ etc, from oversold to overbought (RSI's etc) within 2 weeks, massive HF/CTA short-covering done, classic stuff, consolidation doesn't mean down, trade new higher range, seasonal factors should helpf keep a friendly prie action, bar any new news!
Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 According to Bloomberg, "Private equity firms that amassed more than $1.5 trillion of assets in China in just two decades are now struggling to offload once-promising investments they were counting on for hefty returns." https://t.co/AyyUghIQ1Q" / X (twitter.com)
Mark Nelson on X: "BERLIN: OPPOSITION LEADER MERZ CONFIRMS NUCLEAR OPERATOR OFFERED TO TURN REACTOR BACK ON FOR CHEAP POWER The offer was rejected by Economy Minister Robert Habeck despite his insistence that German industry would be lost without power available at exactly the price suggested by… https://t.co/lZQf1TxsDx" / X (twitter.com)
Rwanda Supreme Court ruling LIVE: Rattled Sunak unveils last-ditch plan to save flagship deportation policy (msn.com) wasted time and money, everyone knew it was just a rediculous plan
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