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Writer's pictureStéphan

German budget blow / Biden, Xi met / U.S soft landing is absolute consensus / UK bond demand



  • Soft landing is now 'the' absolute consensus

  • U.S retail sales declined (slightly) in October, as student debt payment resumed ? >>> ''After adjusting for inflation, US retail sales fell 1.6% over the last year, the 12th consecutive YoY decline'' >>> market momentum is here, the buzz/consensus is 'goldilocks sticks, cooling inflation and a strong economy for long enough to prop up market into year-end''

  • Biden, Xi meeting, some nice soothing words and promises to work on improving communication again, and fighting Fentanyl production! Xi tells US firms China ready to be partner and friend, Biden calling Xi a 'dictator' might not have been the best use of words !!?.. still Xi confirmed that China does not seek spheres of influence and will not fight a cold war or a hot war wiht anyone

  • U.S senate bill on extending debt ceiling : no spending cuts...

  • Taiwan : A joint ticket is forming in Taiwan that may defeat the pro-independence DPP

  • Berlin : opposition leader Merz confirms nuclear operator offered to turn reactor back on for cheap power

  • WSJ-Inflation is falling faster than expected across advanced economies, marking a turning point in central banks’ two-year battle against surging prices

  • UK Bond demand smashes record as investors clamor for yield (£93bn orders for £7bn bonds)

  • German Court deals blow to Scholz govt with budget ruling

  • Fed official (Daly) warns against calling time on rate-rising cycle too soon. US central bank must not claim victory over inflation prematurely, says San Francisco Fed president

  • About those calling for a 'hard landing' in the U.S, which is fair to talk about with nearly 125% of debt/GDP ratio, seems almost inevitable eventually, the real question is whether the hard landing comes through the real economy or the USdollar (or both) - not a call, but part of ongoing discussion with clients on the 'what if's'

 

Markets :

  • Inflation headlines came in softer confirming what everyone wanted to hear, very fast shift to 'goldilocks, soft landing consensus' >>> and now many gunning for a 'March '24 cut form Fed'... might be a little premature...core CPI is still 4%

  • 10's UST support 4.2-4.5% in yield terms, core is still 4%

  • USDollar took an early hit post U.S CPI, for the likes of EURUSD, it stays bullish while above 1.0780-1.0830' area pon weekly basis

  • SPX500, QQ etc, from oversold to overbought (RSI's etc) within 2 weeks, massive HF/CTA short-covering done, classic stuff, consolidation doesn't mean down, trade new higher range, seasonal factors should helpf keep a friendly prie action, bar any new news!


 
















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