All ears on Powell tonight, a load of data, quadruple witching Friday - so busy 72hours coming up for markets, ahead of Xmas holiday season, equity markets rallied lead by QQ higher yesterday as crude collapsed another 4% (NatGas too lately..) and U.S CPI came in as expected >>> markets currently have about 1.10% of rate cuts priced in by Dec 2024, 1.25% for ECB, 90bps for BoE and about 0.7% for SNB >>> Markets not quite aligned to Powell or vice versa, who's right, might Powell want to adjust expectations ? we shall see, I bet he wishes he could say as little as possible today and keep options open on both sides, markets though have decided 2months ago that inflation is softer and thuis rate cut expectations priced in
China’s top leaders vowed to make industrial policy their top economic priority next year, a disappointment for investors hoping for consumer-targeted stimulus. The statement from the annual economic work conference called for a focus on “technological innovation.” Language on “appropriately stepped up” fiscal measures echoed an earlier meeting
Japan business mood rises for 3rd straight quarter on stronger demand. BOJ Tankan survey shows growing optimism among large companies
COP28 president hails climate deal as 'historic'
German Ruling Coalition Seals Deal on Revised 2024 Budget
"Show me the incentive, and I will show you the outcome. The basic rule of incentives is that you get what you were rewarded for. If you have a dumb incentive system, you get dumb outcomes."-Charlie Munger
U.S CPI was 3.1% yesterday, off the peak of 9.,1% in June 2022
Microsoft targets nuclear to power AI operations - WSJ
Markets :
Crude WTI sub $70 down 4% yesterday - Brent challenging the 200week average $74. NatGas also down 35% since late October!
Equity markets, QQQ loves low/steady rate, lower crude prices, and low(er) VIX-vols creates more buying, we know how it works and/or how it can work in reverse (beware tonight, if Powell for some reasons comes out hawkish, stating strong consumers, and tight employment level, this would probably shake a few long Eq in short-term, all about 2024 expectations though)
USD not doing much, in fact FX asleep at the wheel to be honest
UST 10's big picture holidng the 4.00-4.10% area that we mentioned few weeks back
Nr.6 of Saxo's outrageous predictions for 2024 and beyond Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. wins the 2024 US Presidential Election | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Summary: In 2024, for the first time in the history of the USA, a third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, wins the US presidential election. His populist platform against the war-mongering Democrats and against the corporate elites resonates with both disgruntled traditional Democratic and Trump supporters. A new political era in the USA begins with the dramatic pivot away from plutocracy, as voters demand an end to drastic inequality and injustice and the end of forever wars.
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Surveillance: Fed ‘Pivot Party’ Rages On With In-Line Inflation Print
The easing-in-2024 case stays alive, and now everyone waits to hear from Powell
Is it ?
UK lawmakers vote in favor of the Rwanda migration bill in a much-needed respite for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (qz.com)
CS cadres lost $1.2 billion in deferred bonuses - Inside Paradeplatz '''Peanuts in view of the more than 25 billion bonuses that the CS had withheld from its bosses in the decade before its demise?'''
NatGas
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