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Writer's pictureStéphan

German & France's budget in focus/ OPEC delay / Happy Thanksgiving




  • EU gives France an ‘F’ grade on spending plans. High deficit puts Paris in breach of EU’s budget rules. Belgium, Finland and Croatia also singled out

  • France Manuf PMI 42.6

  • German parliament cancels 2024 budget vote amid political crisis...Scholz promises new budget plan, amid spending crisis

  • OPEC meeting pushed back to 30th Nov

  • A Hostage/Prisoner exchange will happen tomorrow at the earliest

  • US mortgage rates dropped sharply, capping the biggest four-week slide in nearly a year and spurring a fresh round of applications to purchase homes

  • Washington blinks as debt costs begin to bite. Increased spending on entitlements and interest could snowball in the coming decades, putting pressure on Washington to act earlier to rein in annual deficits >>> “If interest rates basically stay at their current levels, interest will be the second-largest government program in two years,”

  • Italy PM Meloni could be forgiven for feeling any schadenfreude this week while looking on at Germany’s unfolding budget debacle. A string of fiscal wins for Rome has just coincided w/a crisis rocking Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition in Berlin after a calamitous court judgment cast doubt on financing plans for Europe’s biggest economy

  • Jobless claims: Initial jobless claims fell to 209k for the week of 18 November, reversing most of the recent rise since mid-October and The final November report of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment suggests that it could take some time for inflation narratives to improve

  • Finland to close all but one Russia border crossing to stop asylum seekers

  • S&P global to update assessment of France rating next week

 

Markets :

  • Many mnarket participants now rising estimates for equity markets into year-end, SPX 4700-4800, low vol, seasonal bid, mainly driven by the Mag7, which are now 30% of SPX

  • Crude a little lower as OPEC meeting got pushed back to next week

  • Equity markets, high valuations not forcing anyone out, so far anyway, lower VIX-vols pushes more systematic buying

  • USDollar struggling, seems market happy to sell rallies/reduce long held long positions, if 10's UST was to break sub 4.35% decisively, market will have another go and sell more USD


 













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