Global PMI week / SPX 200dma 5750 ( April 2 tariffs date looms / Copper new highs

Stéphan

6 days ago3 min read

Week ahead : global PMI focus, and FED's preferred inflation data (PCE), then we head towards 2. April into uncertain 'reciprocal tariffs' deadline. Long-end UST's gave up a bit of ground again (Eq recovery), new Copper highs, GOLD holding up (slight weakness on Friday though), Silver focus still, BTC seems to have held key support around 82K. Israel, Turkey and UKR-RU 'deal' in the headlines. SPX 200 dma is 5750, first area to sell a few again if you need to reduce
WSJ - White House Narrows April 2 Tariffs. Tariffs on industrial sectors like cars and microchips are no longer expected to be announced on that date, though major trading partners will still be hit with so-called reciprocal tariffs
GS : "The days of fast and robust annual returns are over. S&P 500 $SPX will return 3% annualized returns over the next Decade, with a distribution around this forecast ranging from -1% to +7%."...stock picking quality names going forward, we agree!
AI will China overproduce now ?
Italy’s Starlink talks at ‘standstill’ amid Musk outrage, minister says
#SPX : ''option pricing and every metric on the planet showcases that nobody is aggressively hedging / panicking'' >>> correct - investors sold outright, reduced, they didn't hedge
Now that Musk and Trump have declared damaging Tesla’s and cyber trucks as an act of terrorism insurance companies are refusing to pay out as the said vehicles haven’t been insured against acts of terrorism
Ukraine, US teams hold talks in Saudi Arabia, US envoy hopeful on ending war
Exclusive: Some European officials weigh if they can rely on Fed for dollars under Trump

AI phases : ..

Initially, China came up with DeepSeek, which had been in the planning for a long while, no coincidence it came out on inauguration day ! went viral and open source so that everyone can access it and can integrate it, all of which hurts US companies who thought they were untouchable (lately in particular)
Then, China's main competence is to export gadget, mini robots etc
And finally, China's gig is to export things at such massive scale that eventually all foregin produce struggle and they win the market (EV cars etc - quite clear strategy..)
AI is fabulous, but at the end of the day its about CAPEX and more importantly monetizing the investments made! and that has become questionable..(valuations took a tumble lately..NVDA etc etc)

Alibaba-affiliate Ant uses Chinese, U.S. chips to cut AI costs

Stock market inflows show investors don't buy tariff doom: Bank of America

Forget MAGA—this is Europe’s moment to make itself great and independent again! | Saxo

Key points:

Europe is undergoing a structural shift toward strategic independence, driven by deglobalisation, rising defence spending, and a renewed focus on domestic resilience.
This transformation is creating long-term investment opportunities in sectors like defence, energy, infrastructure, and technology, all backed by strong political and fiscal momentum.
A basket of European stocks aligned with this theme offers investors a way to gain targeted exposure to the companies best positioned to benefit (see the stock list at the end of the article).
Key risks include political fragmentation, slow policy execution, and stretched valuations—especially in defence stocks that have already seen significant gains.