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GOLD $3'500 / USD stays weak / China dominates AI, Huawei / China exits US private Eq / Big earnings week

  • Writer: Stéphan
    Stéphan
  • 8 hours ago
  • 5 min read


  • Markets : Tariffs drama peak ? CEO's chat with Trump yesterday enough to calm game?.. Time for TOP CEO's and TOP GOP governors to come out..Let's settle back a bit (hopefully) before the U.S markets implode...and try to make some trade deals (take 12-18mos on average to make a trade deal though, btu they 'agree to agree a future agreement'), Powell Drama thrown into the mix over weekend (one would think a grown up telling Trump to stop..), HUGE earnings week coming up. GOLD has more than doubled since we pushed the idea few years back... up nearly 10pct in a week, even for a bull it looks a little overdone in short-term! (still value to be had in miners #GDX). Crude down to 4y lows on tariffs tantrum, clearly NO 'drill baby drill' possible >>> Trump put the country on notice that he will make the Fed a scapegoat for any economic fallout from his trade war (classic blame game preparation) and also delegitimize the institution if it doesn’t cut rates. "It’s tempting to want somebody else to ride to the rescue, or at least have someone else to blame."

  • China pulls back from US private equity investments-FT

  • The dumbest part of all of this is that most of the trade deals that Trump is currently tearing apart are the trade deals that he himself wrote and signed, Japan, Canada, Mexico (President Sheinbaum said y'day Mexico did not reach a final agreement in trade discussions with President Trump), China (all not going a he wants..), and even South Korea saying to Trump Team 'not so fast', negotiations won't be as easy as you think sir, we won't give in so easily! even Thailand said not so fast last night

  • China launches world's first 10G broadband network, delivering 9,834 Mbps download and 1,008 Mbps upload speeds, and Huawei readies new AI chip for mass shipment as China seeks NVIDIA alternatives (hello Huawei, goodbye #NVDA)

  • USD : Important to put some context on the “Dollar is collapsing” stories, the real effective exchange rate is near multi-decade highs, so talking “Collapse” is incorrect, one has to go back 10 or 20+years to realize that, a collapse would be another 20%, FXEMG : EM currencies rally as strategists say rotation away from US to Europe also benefitting some emerging markets (BBG) >>> Japan's Finance Minster Kato and US Treasury Secretary Bessent are arranging a meeting to discuss "forex issues." This comes as the US Dollar just fell to a 52-week low on tariff worries. "Currency manipulation" was the #1 item on President Trump's "non-tariff cheating" list.

  • Walmart, Target and other retailers met with Trump to discuss relief from tariffs

  • Blackstone's Schwarzman: 'Fast resolution' to Trump trade talks critical so economy stays on 'growth path' (Blackstone is down 40% since Nov highs..)

  • Narendra Modi and JD Vance held trade talks in India. The White House hailed “significant progress” and said the two sides had a roadmap for a possible deal (BBG)

  • Japanese investors sold $20bn in international bonds as Trump’s tariffs took hold early this month according to data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Japan holds $1.1tn in US Treasuries across the public and private sectors, the biggest stockpile in the world

  • Airbus pulls back on ‘green’ jet – WSJ The European aerospace giant has suspended plans to deliver flagship zero-emissions commercial aircraft by 2035

  • Harvard is suing the Trump administration (FT) 

  • IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings: These meetings in Washington will likely be dominated by discussions about Trump's unpredictable tariff policies. Finance ministers and central bank governors will be racing to get face time with the Trump administration, hoping to calm the trade storm

  • Putin says he is open to direct peace talks with Ukraine

  • Saudi Aramco and China's BYD are teaming up in a bid to find the next breakthrough in new energy vehicle technologies

  • Trump: "Nobody has done more for Christianity, no one has done more for religion of all types than me!" ...good grief


 


The US, not others, will feel most pain from its economic mistakes

America is not the powerhouse it once was








Agreed there..


Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump (yesterday on his social media platform)

“Preemptive Cuts” in Interest Rates are being called for by many. With Energy Costs way down, food prices (including Biden’s egg disaster!) substantially lower, and most other “things” trending down, there is virtually No Inflation. With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW. Europe has already “lowered” seven times. Powell has always been “To Late,” except when it came to the Election period when he lowered in order to help Sleepy Joe Biden, later Kamala, get elected. How did that work out?


China is doubling down:

China has just announced that they will be pulling back from US private equity investments. Chinese state-backed funds are halting new investments in US PE firms due to government pressure. According to PE executives, funds like China Investment Corporation (CIC) have already begun withdrawing planned commitments.

Chinese investors are also avoiding US-linked deals, even when managed by non-US based PE funds. Just 24 hours ago, China warned they would retaliate against countries that cooperate with the US in ways that compromise their interests. It's very clear what's happening here: China is seeking to isolate the US through trade and investment. The US-China trade war just escalated to a new level.








 
 
 

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