Germany to Hike Defense Budget by Up to €10 Billion in 2024.Defense minister aims to lift military spending to €60 bn. Scholz pledged his government would meet NATO’s 2%
France : new reporting obligation in real estate, collecting information to help the tax authorities establish the housing tax on second homes, the tax on vacant premises and the housing tax on vacant housing, starting to tax those 2nd homes (...likely that it will happen in many more countries...incl. CH)
Credit Suisse pays Double to lure investors to its euro bond offering
-The European Commission proposed disconnecting Alfa-Bank, Rosbank and Tinkoff Bank from SWIFT as part of the tenth package of anti-Russian sanctions
Inflation is not getting to 2% this year, that's pretty sure, 3% hopefully..but pretty unlikely too, we should count ourselves fortunate if median inflation gets to about 4%, this will be a 'good' result...Bringing inflation down will be a multi year project..(IMHO), but that's in many ways a good thing! why you asking ? because it will be the return to more productive deployment of capital, which will mean investing more in the real, physical world to accomplish the new set of supply chain, resource access imperatives, and new well paid jobs for the younger generation
Brookfield (the largest office landlord in downtown LA) defaulted on loans tied to two office skyscrapers in the city, the Gas Company Tower and the 777 Tower, which carry loans totaling $784 million, higher rates biting, which should not be a surprise in this sector (bigger issue is rising vacant rates actually, and LA not the only place youhear such stories..)
HF cover bid on our desk again today. Expect this trend to continue tomorrow with much better than expected numbers from CSCO, ZG, TWLO and ROKU post close. Most of these are crowded shorts and will inflict pain on fast money community tomorrow." - GS FICC
Nestle plans price hikes after inflation eats into profits
BoJ Head Nominee Ueda To Speak At Japan's Lower House On Feb 24
Markets :
6 month T-bill yield at about 16 year high over 5% >>> remember those 50bps of rate cuts that were priced for end of 2023...they are nearly gone, still 15bps priced..(rest pushed further out), high(er) for longer
UST 2s10s spread 87bps inversion, that's pretty fierce - MOVE index/Bond vols softer again helping (chart below) >>> 10's UST yields already moved up from 3.40 to 3.80 since Feb NFP...
USDollar 'has' already moved higher in last 2-3weeks since NFP, together with 10's. For those looking for a BoJ move on YCC comes April, these levels near 134JPY are attractive again to buy a few Yen (via option-spreads)
GOLD same picture, moved down as per above, big support around $1820
Equity markets, Tech rules since early Jan, massive short covering in the high beta stuff, TSLA has doubled in price since then!.. and many others, market makers pedalling behind together with all the 0DTE flows, still a lot of liquidities in these markets then!...10 day realized vol on ES at 12% now. 2nd lowest level since Jan 2022
Crude/commods hoding where they should for the bulls - correction over ? (charts below)
That's a pretty cool website - some great content folks - you can also subscribe to newsletter for free - see if u like it The Armchair Trader: Stock Market Tips, News and Analysis
Summary: The US equity market put in a solid advance yesterday even as treasury yields remain near recent highs. Sentiment in Asia recovered smartly overnight after a stumble yesterday. In FX, yesterday's sharp USD advance paused, while in commodities, oil is pushing back higher near important resistance levels and gold is nearing major support after a drop of more than a hundred dollars per ounce in just two weeks.
been fully priced in for a long while, and more behind..nothing new
China has resumed regular passenger flights with 58 countries as of Feb. 12, with 98 Chinese and foreign airlines handling 795 passenger flights last week, up 65% from the week before China downgraded management of COVID-19 from Class A to Class B, said the CAAC Thursday >>> no-one talks covid anymore, good riddance !
All the leaders of the UK’s 6 largest parties in the 2019 General Election have now resigned: CON: Boris Johnson LAB: Jeremy Corbyn LDM: Jo Swinson SNP: Nicola Sturgeon BRX/REF: Nigel Farage GRN: Sian Berry
Further signs of crisis at Home REIT as firm considers putting itself up for sale | Evening Standard
Of course he would...he came 2nd
Australian gold miner Newcrest Mining is “worth a lot more” than the approximately $17 billion takeover bid made by US rival Newmont, the company’s interim chief executive officer says Newcrest CEO Says Ball Is in Newmont’s Camp in Takeover Talks - Bloomberg
NASDAQ100 could surprise a few to topside - too many shorts still/positioning etc
have a super Thursday
Team PVM
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