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Writer's pictureStéphan
Jul 24, 20243 min read

Harris leads Trump 44-42% / UK equities +ve, U.S earnings slightly softer / Weaker German PMI / #JPY #BOJ 30th Jul


  • #NASDAQ 19'500, markets get short gamma below there, similarly 5500 for #SPX500

  • Harris vs Trump, long way to go, but Trump would have definitely preferred to go against Biden....NEW Reuters/Ipsos poll (conducted after Biden dropped out) Harris 42% Trump 38% Kennedy 8%

  • SPX500 key support around 5500, Very key weekly support, market gets short gamma below it, so beware, earnings yesterday were weaker than expected (Via miss on revenues, UPS miss expectations, TSLA delay disappointing earnings again - after a huge rally in the shares lately though, GOOG decent numbers, CEO though asked for patience on Ai, DB weaker too this morning >>> Richmond Fed manuf lowest since May 2020, Phily Fed similar lowest since Dec 2020, U.S existing home sales down 5.4% in June

  • Germany’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to 42.6 in July vs. 44.0 exp , services PMI for the German economy fell to 52.0 in July vs. 53.1 estimate. French services PMI were slightly higher in in July though (Olympics?)

  • #JPY : Japan's chief cabinet secretary calls for broad-based wage hikes >>>  Most #BOJ Watchers See July Rate Hike Risk With Bond-Buying Cut – Bloomberg

  • The slump in China economic activity is again proving to be a headwind for certain parts of the European equity markets, as nearly all industries with China exposure forecast to experience earnings stagnation or weakness

  • FT - Investors warm to UK equities in ‘turning of tide’ for unloved market. Fund managers including BlackRock, Allianz and Ruffer are betting political stability will boost London market

  • U.S : Used car and truck prices are now down 17.5% since the 2021 peak, the largest decline in 15 years

  • Americans are traveling at record levels: There are a record ~418,000 flights scheduled between the US and Europe from April to October 2024, and yet airlines are struggling on earnings

  • The Mexican government is expressing very strong criticisms about the structure of global trade and especially of China's role in global imbalances

  • Few months ago, experts called for Copper to go to the moon...3months lows now

 








We used to work together !... well done Stefan Bollinger !









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