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Writer's pictureStéphan

Hartnett, US debt debasement / China : muted reaction / TCJA : $2trn cost / France-EU : defense spending plans needed / GOLD up real rates lower



  • SPX500 run : ''once in a life time spectacular run last 3 to 4months'', unless we go back pre mid 60's. HSI down 2% in response to China's annual National People's Congress, muted reaction to the 5% GDP target. Powell's testimony key (will probably want more good news on inflation, patience required?) and US job report later on, with UK budget and ECB meeting in between >>> Often talked about Mag 7 has been more like Mag 4 YTD (less TSLA, GOOGLE and APPL ) and a lot of GOLD 'break up' calls now... (XAG and XPT should be in there soon too)

  • "Chinese local governments are pivoting from a reliance on property investment to developing hubs for cutting-edge industries after more than half of the Chinese mainland’s provincial-level regions missed their GDP targets for 2023." >>> local rates/yields 10y lows (3pct deficit target same as 2023, over 7% on defense, planning to export more stuff, which the RoW might not want or need..)

  • TCJA“.. the evidence is in, and the Tax Cut and job acts looks set to be remembered as an outstanding fiscal disaster. By 2027, it will have cost almost $2 trillion, while failing to deliver the promised benefits.”

  • France pushes EU for financing plan to drive Defense Spending >>>> EU defense, war bonds are coming very soon, only a question of time and size

  • EQT said on Monday it would curtail nearly 1 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day of natural gas production starting late February due to the current low price environment

  • A Greenland start-up is being accused of doing titanic damage to the environment by shipping ice from glaciers over 100,000 years old to be used in cocktails served at high-priced bars in Dubai

  • Harvard endowment's liquidities/Ackman's thread

  • BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF reaches over $10 billion in AUM

  • Everyone seems to be running out of reasons to be negative — even well-known worrier Nouriel Roubini

  • Ships entering Yemeni waters must obtain permit, Houthi minister says

  • U.S. debt, which is the amount of money the federal government borrows to cover operating expenses, now stands at nearly $34.4 trillion, as of Wednesday. Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett believes the 100-day pattern will remain intact with the move from $34 trillion to $35 trillion. “Little wonder ‘debt debasement’ trades closing in on all-time highs''

 





It usually takes a while between increase of insider selling and 'peak markets' - but insider selling sure is quite prominent these days, Bezos $8.5bn, Waltons $11bn+, Zuckerger, Dimon, and many others







Is this really necessary...







PLAT-XPT - cost of production around $800-900..




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