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HK, China further easing, Crude.. / FTX, Binance / Lithium / U.S CPI next!





  • The world needs 2 billion electric vehicles to get to net zero. But is there enough lithium to make all the batteries?

  • Hong Kong is fully reopened to overseas arrivals, 3-day monitoring removed

  • GOLDMAN: “Next year, we expect that zero earnings growth will result in zero appreciation for the S&P 500. .. Based on our conversations with clients in recent weeks, many investors have a more bearish equity market outlook than we do.” [Kostin] >>> all about stock picking over the next few years, quality names!

  • China Plans Over $143Bln Push to Boost Domestic Chips, Compete With US >>> yet.., A sharp increase in China’s Covid infections following an abrupt end to strict pandemic control measures suggests investors may need to pare back on reopening trades, according to Morgan Stanley

  • FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried nicked in the Bahamas after US files criminal charges.

  • US Justice Department may charge Binance Execs for money laundering, Silvergate in the mix too etc etc ...

  • JPM: "CPI Prints 6.9% or lower. A print here could be the technical end of the bear market, putting this latest rally at a more than 20% move from its lows in October. SPX +8% - 10%." >> let's see about this then later on!, nothing like pumping some ideas, on a random number, nothing like a bit of publicity..

  • New York Fed survey on inflation: Year ahead inflation falls to 5.2% from 5.9% last month, that's a record month to month drop

  • Looking back at the last 22 years of monetary policy. Central bankers created more than $30trn USD >> great Thread below

  • Putin unexpectedly cancels annual Year-End marathon Press Conference, though, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping to hold talks on New Year's Eve - Vedomosti

  • Alabama, Utah become the latest U.S. states to ban TikTok on state devices

  • EU corruption scandal: European Parliament offices searched

 
Markets :
  • Equity markets : do NOT be surprised if we move 3-4% over next 24hours, up and/or down in fact, and do not forget OPEX expiry Friday, which will impact on the edges of recent range

  • USD remains stable/softish but nothing really new this week

  • Bonds reacted a little to slightly higher PPI last Friday, but nothing ramatic - yet anyway

  • ALL about language, 50bps cemented, clearly 25 or 75bps would be a big surprise to markets and will have its implications, U.S CPI first >>> looking at implied vols, VERY high for a couple of days (on random numbers and headlines...) then implied cut in half, so high vol on number then hopefully ''relatively quiet'' going into year-end

  • Crude off lows, China re-opening

 

US Inflation over the last couple of months (CPI YoY) October 2021: +6.2% November: +6.8% December: +7% January 2022: +7.5% February: +7.9% March: +8.5% April: +8.3% May: +8.6% June: +9.1% (was the high) July: +8.5% August: +8.3% September: +8.2% October: +7.7% November: (Expectation +7.3%)


Electric vehicle demand – has the world got enough lithium? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org) >>> the world is way way behind the plan, the amount of capital required are probably 100x what's been discussed right now to be effective and there is probably not enough lithium in the world for such big rollout, and not enough iridium either (for sure..!!)



All change - GS on China covid zero: "we have changed our base case to "effective reopening with control" vs. our long-held view of vaccinating the elderly before reopening after next year's "Two Sessions"



Best thing about Eva Kaili's arrest is that she got paid bride from Qatar....IN FIAT currencies :-) when her role is .....European Parliament | Chair C4AI | ICT | Foresight Innovation Digital Strategy | CSR | InvestEU | Blockchain Who is Eva Kaili, the MEP at the centre of the corruption scandal shaking up Brussels? | Euronews - you just couldn't make this stuff up..








India's defense minister Singh says Indian and Chinese soldiers came to blows last week. India raised the issue with China diplomatically. Soldiers on both sides suffered from injuries.-BBG




Have a great day

Team PVM








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