FED officials keep making the points of no cuts next year, markets not listening (Thread) - Will Powell insist on it today ?>>> The buck has had the worst month in over 10years, down 4-5% pverall (USDCNH lagging got obvious reasons, catch up on reopening next ?), terminal rate 5% (priced in) on the basis of #peakinflation, peak rates and thus peak USDdollar that we talked about extensively 6-8weeks ago, the only thing that looks a little farfetched (for now) is the amount of cuts priced in for 2023/24, let's see what J.Pow has to say later on, markets expects him to be remain fairly hawkish overall
FT - Collateralised fund obligations: how private equity securitised itself, Stakes in hundreds of buyout groups’ companies have been bundled into investments with strong credit ratings >>> CDO's all over again - markets will never learn, worst credit repackaged into so called safe investment...
ECB probably 50bps now in Dec after weaker German inflation data >>> overall HICP will surprise to the downside form here, with a core stable around 4.5/5%..
In the UK though, BRC survey suggests #food price inflation hit a new high of 12.4% in November, up from 11.6% in Oct, BOE's Pill: Our base case does not involve rates reaching 5.25%, expects UK inflation to start falling next year, assuming natural gas prices stabilise and then start to drop
The Dutch government will buy and close 3,000 farms to comply with EU climate targets…
FTX told customers to deposit money by wiring funds to Alameda's bank accounts, according to a Bloomberg report
Credit Suisse hitting all-time lows below 3CHF, as CDS hit an all-time high..
Stoltenberg reaffirms Ukraine will one day enter NATO
Elon Musk reportedly delays the launch of Twitter Blue again, this time to spite Apple
Markets :
HSI has rallied about 10pct last 3days, and some 25% off late October lows... LONG-term chart below to put things in perspective...''CCP won't be able to lock people down for much longer..'', when (not if) China (at least partly) re-opens, the markets locally have room to fly higher..together with commodities etc etc
Overall rates in long-end may well be peaking on peak inflation, however, Central Banks will have to reduce actively their balance-sheet next, the FED mentioned before that about $2trn in on the cards during 2023, and this will matter for some parts of the markets...
SPX500 'stalled' in our previously mentioned resistance zone 4'050 initially, then much bigger levels around 4'150, short-term support around 3'925 for today
Global #Bonds add record $2.8 Trillion in market value this month.... #peakworries ...
USDollar dropped about 5% in November, worst month in 10years, #peakinflation = #peakusdollar ... all happened pretty quickly, however markets should be a little careful from here, as Powell is NO Bernanke, inflation is still very high and employment is still very firm too, so he's unlikely to budge on his views and may remind markets that cuts already priced in for 2023/24 are wrong
Crude remains near lows too, 4th Dec meeting - OPEC+ decision to hold virtual meeting signals little likelihood of policy change, cap on Russian oil awaited - source
ALL about Powell now, NFP Friday, one more U.S CPI before the December meetings for which
The US hospital staffing company Envision Healthcare, owned by the private equity firm KKR, has the lowest possible junk-grade credit rating and is at risk of bankruptcy, according to Moody’s. But an ownership stake in Envision, bundled with stakes in hundreds of other private equity-owned companies, has been transformed into a financial security marketed to ordinary savers as a safe investment with a stellar credit rating
I mean really?... red flags all over and no-one cared? astonishing, due diligence anyone?
ECB’s Christine Lagarde: Further crypto regulation ‘absolute necessity’ following FTX collapse (yahoo.com) >>> why do we need a collapse to bring regulations !!?
It’s not what you do and mess up, it’s what you don’t do that will plague you when you are old and looking back on your life.
Have a great week - Back next Wednesday
Team PVM
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