Focus for next week - a lot going on! : FOMC meeting (expected and priced to hike 50bps), U.S CPI on Tuesday AND U.S Congress faces a 16th December deadline to pass legislation to continue funding the government (failure to do so, risks partial shutdown). ECB priced and expected to do 50bps, BoE similar and SNB approx. 40bps priced, CHINA industrial production and retail sales on Thursday too, ALL about the language from CB's
In a couple of weeks, things have changed so fast that China has completely shifted to an "all in economy" mode...!
Even at the ..ECB staff in pay dispute to hold talks about potential strike . Union will discuss protest action in new year if wage offer remains well below inflation rate
Germany - Residential Construction Orders Down almost 30% year-on-year. More than during the Great Financial Crisis
U.S Continuing Jobless Claims surge to 10-month highs
Italy : With a booming black economy and the highest number of small businesses in Europe, cash is still very much king in Italy and Giorgia Meloni’s new right-wing coalition wants to keep it that way
-Blackstone chief defends real estate fund amid rush for withdrawals
"Capital Markets activity is not expected to pick up until 2H 2023" - Goldman Fins Conference
The 30-year US mortgage rate has moved from 7.10% to 6.35% over the last month, the largest monthly decline (-75 bps) in rates since Dec 2008
TheAPR on the average U.S credit card just hit a record 19.50%
Norwegian CPI YoY actual 6.5% (forecast 7%, previous 7.5%) - good news
Eye watering price of £500+ per MWH for electricity this morning as UK Wind Power begins to fade, not good, as whole of Europe goes sub-zero!!
Markets :
Rates lower, GOLD and Silver up, while Crude 10pct down this week - something not quite right, clearly looks like a big liquidation in spec longs in crude (Bridgewater and few HF been mentioned, clearly a big fund)
SPX500 keeping to 3925/4050 range, QQQ rallying a little on lower yields and liquidity
USDollar a little softer following yield
Clearly next week is the last very busy macro week, anything surprising from here could lead to large market swings, liquidities are already pretty light, invest/trade accordingly!
Why oil has dropped despite new constraints on Russian supply | Financial Times (ft.com) Crude settles at lowest level of 2022 after European embargo and G7 price cap take effect
Blackouts will trigger a people’s revolt against the new eco-tyranny. Green policies are popular in theory, but can only be sustained if they don’t threaten our quality of life
Poor performance now ‘the norm’ for some UK water firms, warns Ofwat | Water | The Guardian >>>> totally insane!! The Guardian revealed last week that the nine main water and sewerage companies had paid out £65.9bn in dividends in the last three decades. They have also taken on debts of £54bn.
Investors should “look at Blackstone and say, ‘You guys have done an incredible job at deploying our capital in exactly the right geography, in exactly the right sectors with the right balance sheet,’” he added. “I think they have confidence in us.”.... let's see about that now then
For many years Switzerland was able to increase its prosperity discreetly under the cover of neutrality. That’s not so easy in today’s shifting geopolitical landscape.
Have a great Friday and we wish you a lovely weekend
Team PVM
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