Softer NFP, forced further unwinding of 'short UST's', and lifted rates sensitive equity sectors that had been hammered lately, small caps-Russell, regional banks, Reit's etc, too many were positioned on the ''higher for longer'' theme, however, 'high for longer' was always the most likely scenario.. KOSPI up 5%, as authorities banned short-selling... >>> softer economic data and more cautious Central Banks ahead is what Mr Market loved last week, fair to say though we had 4.9% GDP vs ISM sub 50 (weird), a slightly weaker Oct NFP print, yet the 3-6montrhs average remains pretty healthy, we now have 50bps cut priced in by July 2024..
South Korea bans short selling until 2024
BofA: Global central banks “now cutting rates at fastest pace since Aug'20 (30 cuts in 3 months) ..” [Hartnett]
FT-Why there are still active asset managers. Markets appear inefficient enough to justify large investors’ use of them
This week’s notional net buying ranks in the 99th percentile vs. the past 5 years" GS PB
AI bot capable of insider trading and lying, say researchers
Saudi Arabia, Russia to continue additional voluntary oil cuts
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reveals record $157 billion cash pile as the investor hunts in vain for bargains
AAPL has bought back over $600bn of its own stocks over the past 10 years >> that's more than the market cap of some 490 companies within the S&P500...
Tesla to build 25,000-euro car at German plant
"CTAs had $19b S&P to buy in a flat tape over 5 trading sessions... after Friday's close with momentum flipping from negative to positive across all 3 triggers this S&P demand should increase by at least 2x." - GS
Japan's largest industrial union UA Zensen will seek a 6% total wage increase, of which 4% will be base pay hikes, at next spring's negotiations, a union official said on Monday
Markets :
UST 10y broke well below the short term support trend line, hitting the 50dma around here 4.60%, bigger support in yield terms is around 4.3%
USDollar weakened fairly sharply vs a number of pairs, 'peak usd ?' certainly few decent moves came in as expected ...in CABLE, AUDUSD, USDJPY peaking 150-151+, EUROUSD 1.0500 area, USDCAD 1.3800, USDMXN, even USDCNH backed off 7.32+..
Equity markets : Very sharp short covering rally (remember 7weeks of HF selling shorts..?...all got squeezed now. Overall markets will feel comfortable again while above 200dma SPX500 around 4240 area,full blown move up into year-end ? 4380-4400 next stop (chart)... Small caps also rallied hard (from super oversold levels..)
Financial conditions improved materially last week with lower UST yields and softer USD, while Crude lost 4% or so last week (HF selling too, cutting bullish bets..)
Last week we got, a BoJ less aggressive, slightly better refunding announcement (the early trigger), a FED that emphasized on the the 'tightening of financial conditions', sharp short positioning equity (7 weeks of HF shorting..) and bonds got squeezed hard, 200dma in SPX500 2340+ now will make the 'year-end rally' crowd more comfortable, crude lower on HF liquidation too...
SPX500 - back near top ? or full blown move up into year-end ? 4380-4400 next stop
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