top of page
Writer's pictureStéphan

IAE energy outlook / Crude softer / KRE / MSFT, GOOG, next up AMZN / US Treasury refunding next week



  • MSFT boosted by AI (shares up 3% - the most likely big Techs to have kept up with earnings, it0's fair to say..), while Google lags (shares down 6%)

  • House GOP gives Mike Johnson Speaker nod after whirlwind Emmer dropout

  • IEA energy outlook, based on current climate and energy policies, IEA is looking for global oil, gas and coal demand to peak by 2030

  • Xi makes unprecedented Central Bank visit in sign of focus on economy

  • BlackRock's Fink: increase in US deficit is highly inflationary (too much spending..)

  • EURO are PMI's were still on the weak side of things yesterday, pretty ugly actually, cycle lows in EZ composite, not really confirming a consistent wage-price spiral ! German companies mentioned a relatively steep rise in expenses on services side, but a big fall on manufacturing costs, so margin pressure likely in near future

  • Sweden’s Central Bank needs more than $7 Billion to cover losses >> slightly misleading : Well it's one of the very few CB that marks to market it's bond portfolio! just imagine how big the 'losses' would be for ECB, FED, BoJ etc etc (BoA's YTD something like $100+bn)...

  • ECB's BLS : "The net decrease in loan demand was also among the strongest in BLS history for SMEs."

  • Europe’s Energy quandary: navigating between Qatar and climate goals

  • California on Tuesday ordered General Motors' cruise unit to remove its driverless cars from state roads, calling the vehicles a risk to the public and saying the company had "misrepresented" the safety of the technology

  • Kremlin responds to rumors of Putin body double amid heart attack claims

 

Markets :

-10's UST 4.9% vs 10's Greece near 4.4%.. >>> US Treasury is widely expected to announce huge coupon incr size across the curve in their refunding announcement

-#KRE - Regional Bank stocks have fallen to their lowest prices since late May (chart)

-Crude : softer prices, seems 'global slowdown, recession risk' having more impact than geopolitics in ME

-USDollar back up firm(er) again, pretty easily really after the Ackmann dip yesterday, hard to see $ weakening materially

-Equity markets : 200dma 4235 area in SPX500 the key AND watch sentiment will decide after the big 7's report, Google and TSLA lower, MSFT (the most likely to do well) holding up, next up AMZN and APPLE next week (NVDA is much later, 21st Nov), nothing grandissima to report, they delivering but a few cracks/signs of slowdown appearing

 






Well.. says the the CEO of hte bank thta paid the most fines during the GCC crisis - $39bn, trouble is, IMHO, the creation of ZIRP, NIRP, 35trn of QE overall, Covid, ESG/wars, energy sources and now QT, 5% UST's have all happened in a VERY fast time, faster ever ever ever, and thus has thrown the 'usual slow economic modes' out of the window.. Central banks and governments, have created this insane bubble (which has started to deflate last 2y, China, real-estates, reits, eq names without much of an E and weak balance-sheets etc) with debt that has doubled last 15years worldwide, governments can't simply print to keep the voters happy, choices will have to be made now, governments will have to reign in on spending..







Bonkers




#KRE - tough markets to pick winners



WTI crude



36 views0 comments

Comments


bottom of page