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Writer's pictureStéphan

Increased probability of Trump victory in Nov / China GDP miss / USDJPY top in place on BoJ intervention last week



  • Donald Trump is not letting an attempted assassination derail his plans to attend the Republican National Convention, saying that he can’t allow a “shooter” to change his schedule >>> odds at quoted by Polymarket. Anything else than a result Trump victory in November now feels unlikely, good for risk, deregulations, steeper (30y yields making highs) >>> US 2s/30s yield spread briefly turns positive for 1st time since Jan, Trump bullish risk, deregulations etc + bull steepener

  • #USDJPY seems approx $15bn were sold last week after U.S CPI, clearly BoJ will need to move on rates to sustain move

  • BP has taken an enormous risk by betting the farm on booming global demand for oil and gas as far out as the late 2030s, and retreating drastically from renewables and clean-tech investment

  • China GDP up 4.7% yoy in Q2, previous 5.3%, expected 5.1%

  • An influx of cheap nickel supply from Indonesia has all but killed off Western Australia’s long-running nickel sector

  • #GOLD 2400+ continues to be well supported, next big wave buying should take markets towards $2700

  • Zermatt rail link interrupted for weeks after severe flooding in Switzerland

 
















#USDJPY >>> can go towards 150 and still be in up trend..



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