Harris tops Trump in Iowa in latest Des Moines Register poll, no matter how you slice it U.S payrolls were weaker, 20 central bank meetings including FED (Thursday), BoE RBA and Norges, US elections and China's National People's Congress >>> markets got pretty long #USD, #BTC and short #duration lately on the #TrumpTrade so what out if Kamala makes it ! small reaction so far overnight, going into this week fairly light in risk, happy to reposition for either reaction in markets, and add to risk on a decent risk-off scenarion
FT-Bankers, traders and investors are bracing themselves for a long stint of high volumes and increased volatility, particularly in bond and currency markets, ahead of Tuesday’s US presidential election.... ie for this potentially huge week, Mr market has bought a lot of vol to hedge / position itself in bonds, equity and FX markets
Citi reports on divergent views on a range of issues between investors and policymakers/political analysts; investors appear to have already priced in a Trump win in the election, whereas political analysts, while seeing the odds as biased towards Trump, are more wary.
Warren Buffett slashes Apple stake as he boosts cash to record high. Berkshire’s stock-selling spree extends for eighth quarter, with $166bn dumped over the period
US election imminent - JP Morgan says Fed to pause rate cuts on a Trump win
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, continues to de-risk now has $325 billion in cash (most of it in TBills), more than the entire market cap of 477 companies in the S&P 500, and 1st quarter they did not buy back their own shares since 2018
Fund manager cash levels have dropped to 3.9%, which has triggered a sell signal for stocks according to BofA
Analysts expectations for the Magnificent 7 earnings in 2025 have been slashed by nearly 3 percentage points
Protests over Spain flood response interrupt king's visit to stricken Valencia suburb
OPEC+ nations delay production increase by another month
Moldova's pro-Europe President Maia Sandu claims victory in election runoff
Carl Quintanilla on X: "JPMORGAN: 🇺🇸 “.. What is driving Harris’s nascent outperformance .. ? It is primarily women and older voters .. Harris is winning female Independents by 28-pts .. For older voters, Harris is winning women 63% to 28% and men by 47% to 45%. “.. Reasons for this shift may include https://t.co/GzoiX0ipmy" / X
Bob Elliott on X: "Losing the long-end of sovereign bond markets is the most important financial risk today. This weekend's DSR from @dampedspring is a must read for thinking through how to navigate this possibility ahead. And it is free for everyone: https://t.co/nBf87WwTpi" / X #longend, #duration is getting a lot of coverage these days... ahead of US election and, total debt already $36trn --- Steno Signals #124 - Something is WRONG in bond markets - Steno Research this guy also a good read and another example of focus on #duration
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