20th April 2020... when Crude traded at -40$
Saxo podcast below : Steen takes us through his thoughts on the debt ceiling issue, the China re-opening story, but especially the market's nervousness as geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, as we discuss the recent seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde on "Central Banks in a fragmenting world" and all of its geopolitical and policy implications
US April Philly Fed -31.3 vs -19.2 expected, Jobless claims climb to 245,000 and signal rising layoffs >>> a few weeks near or above 250K will be a concern
Japan core consumer inflation hits 41-year high of 3% in FY 2022 >>> makes the BoJ decision next week a little trickier (March core CPI 3.1% YoY)
Michael Schumacher: 7x F1 champion's family plan legal action after AI-generated 'interview' - already going too far...
Tesla has gone from assuring investors it wouldn’t need to choose between growth and profitability, to acknowledging the need to sacrifice one for the other : growth over margin
JPMorgan expects U.S. debt ceiling to become an issue as early as May, sees a "non-trivial risk" of a technical default on U.S. Treasuries
Tesla and Twitter chief executive Elon Musk, who has been calling for US government spending reductions, said on Wednesday that a debt default was just a question of time
Stoltenberg says all NATO countries think Ukraine will be come a NATO country
G7 nations considering near-total ban on exports to Russia -Kyodo
''If you believe that we should cut emissions further and faster, you have to honest with people, and tell them about that cost. You cannot pretend that we live in a world without trade-offs, where you can slash carbon emissions without anyone noticing.''
French poll finds far-right Le Pen more popular than Macron
Branson's Virgin Orbit files Chapter 11 bankruptcy plan
Meanwhile, Argentina’s central bank increased its benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 81%, a person familiar with the decision said, after annual inflation reached in March a faster-than-expected 104%
Chile plans to nationalize its vast lithium industry
Top EU diplomats head to the English seaside for secret Brexit away day, sounds exiting!
Markets :
Iron Ore Dec lows - see below, Crude given up all the OPEC+ output cut 'short-covering rally', might help keep inflation under control, though lower prices on 'lower demand'
The spread between 3-month (5.12%) and 1-month (3.40%) Treasury yields has never been higher: 1.72% >> this will make heads turn for a few weeks, it can't happen really, but a 'technical default' could, it's in the hand of politicians after all
SPX500, same picture, 4150-4200 toppish - all very steady, perhaps too steady! NQ, light underperformance and weak ARKK style stocks under pressure (weak balance-sheets, no real earnings etc)
USDollar : light profit taking on USD shorts established last few weeks, BoJ next week focus
MACRO : to the recession (soft, hard, etc) and inflation debate, you can add ''risk'' of some sort U.S govt shutdown and the G7 coming up on 19.20th Mai (china rethorics etc)
Debt ceiling crunch time. Geopolitical tectonics rumbling in the background. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) cup of tea, sit back and listen, about Lagarde speech too - must also focus (Russia, China etc new geopolitical reality etc)
Perhaps a little less hawkish than many could have expected
All seems well at the moment, many arguing this eventual slowdown: The giant spoiler is that the eurozone money supply is in free-fall. The process has been going on long enough to raise the risk of an economic sudden-stop over coming months. European Central Bank data shows that 'narrow' M1 money has been contracting since last September in absolute terms >>> The EZ PMIs this morning clearly suggesting that the domestic economy appears to be completely unfazed by slowing money supply growth, tightening credit standards and so on.. If this stays so, mr market is going to talk 4% from ECB very soon again
At least they are talking !
Sorry, but this is another great example of ridiculous mis-allocation of capital (or worse), it was fun while QE machines were working and rates were zero
amazing pics though it has to be said
Never mind "climate change deniers" - it's trade-off deniers we should worry about — Institute of Economic Affairs (iea.org.uk) - well worth a read
The reason why Switzerland’s economic clout is easily underestimated is that they sell a lot of things that, as end-consumers, we do not directly see, such as high-end capital goods, industrial chemicals, and high-end services that happen behind the scenes. If the world economy were a concert, Switzerland would be supplying the sound system, and organise the logistics around it, but they would not be on the stage singing. Most people may not be able to name a lot of Swiss brands off the top of their heads. But if the Swiss economy shut down tomorrow – we would notice it.
Watch European Miners as Iron Ore Price Slips to December Low By Julien Ponthus
(Bloomberg) -- European mining stocks may be in focus on Friday with iron ore trading at its lowest since December, as lukewarm demand in top consumer China and ample supplies continued to cap market sentiment.
Futures in Singapore plunged as much as 5.5%, its steepest intraday decline in six months, reflecting slow consumption of the key steelmaking material despite China’s usual peak building season being well underway
“Pushing for higher volumes and a larger fleet is the right choice here, versus a lower volume and higher margin” Musk said during Tesla’s earnings call late Wednesday.
have a wonderful weekend
Team PVM
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