U.S debt ceiling drama over, they all got their air time live on TV, all hype and a nothing burger, defund the IRS, fiscal inconsistence, make noise then back down, as they say in Texas ''all hat and no cattle''..
Fedspeak: hear overnight from Boston Fed President Collins, Governor Bowman, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, and Governor Jefferson. Harker and Jefferson (both FOMC participants; ), expressed a preference for “skipping” a rate hike in June (skipping does not mean a cut clearly) >>> ADP set to report slightly slower job gains, but focus more on NFIB hiring plans
America’s credit card balance has passed $1 trillion, or it’s about to, depending on whom you ask. The average interest rate on a new card is 24 percent, the highest figure since the Reaganomics era. A typical American household now carries $10,000 in credit card debt (student loan debt is $1.4trn)
‘You don’t want to pick up your trash, don’t come to the mountain,’ mountaineer Tenzi Sherpa said, as he shared visuals of trash left behind on Mount Everest
U.S regional model for ISM Manufacturing falling off a cliff this week, forecasts an ISM Manufacturing Index off of 45.9 >>>> but still plenty of jobs out there : JOLTS : Job Openings 10.103MM, Exp. 9.4MM, Last 9.745MM
Banks now have $515.6 billion in unrealized losses, per FDIC as of Q1
Germany : consumers have gone on a buyers' strike (inflation and negativ real wages hurting..), retail sales slumped 8.6% in Apr, much higher than expected, mainly driven by a drop in food purchases of ~10%. Shows that Q2 also got off to a weak start.
Dr. Garry Nolan, a professor at Stanford University’s medical school who worked with the CIA to analyze U.S. personnel who developed medical issues after alleged contact with UFOs, has stated that extraterrestrial life not only exists, but walks among us
Markets :
USdollar at risk of having peaked into month-end (short-term), particularly IF the Fed skips June, nothing dramatic, if/when, the next hike will get priced in July - more of tactical move
SPX500, U.S markets and europe had a 'slight' loss of momentum into month-end too, but again nothing too dramatic, for now anyway. Big picture, we think valuatons far too high, eventual manufacturing recession, China, commods, crude, industrial metals etc could well weigh on rest of markets eventually, as rates start to bite AND challenging liquidity (see below)
Crude >>> OPEC+ meets on 4th June with Crude below $70, when Saudi's have a budget rate of $80...
-Bonds shifting Fed hike from June to July, ECB nailed on for June, market expectations might shift from 2 or 3 hikes to 1 or 2 hikes coming over next few months
Drama over.
Shares in some Chinese temple operators and lottery sellers surged for a second day on Thursday amid a weak post-COVID recovery, as despondent young people rush to pray or gamble amid greater economic uncertainty, strewth!
1. Potent liquidity squeeze, as Treasury refills its TGA account – rates rise to effect required Fed B/S outflows (assuming QT at current pace) 2. QT meant nothing YTD, it will mean something now 3. TGA dynamics flip from a 3% addition to nominal GDP over past 5 months to a potential drawdown nearing 10% of GDP in the next 3 months (TS Lombard's Steve Blitz)
totally ridiculous, scandalous in fact, discusting
Don't listen to CNBC ? :-) ... #inversecramer !
For all the talk of 'precedents' and good governance, the real motivation for the Prime Minister's refusal to disclose information to the Covid Inquiry is his own self-protection
Dr. Garry Nolan, a professor at Stanford University’s medical school who worked with the CIA to analyze U.S. personnel who developed medical issues after alleged contact with UFOs, has stated that extraterrestrial life not only exists, but walks among us......ok then beware folks!
They had rallied far too much in previous covid years..
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