#JPY matters, worse scenario - fastest unwind that I lived through was October 1998
Japan's stock market, the Nikkei 225, is currently set to post its largest 2-day drop in history, Japan’s world-beating rally YTD wiped out over just a couple of days, stairs up, elevator down >>> JPY carry unwind happens fast, in days rather than months, always #margincalls etc, market never learns >>> once again, it piled in LONG mainly QQQ, NIKKEI, Ai and any other possible stories + short vol of course and short JPY, all reversed/reversing rapidly, this marekt dislocation will represent great opportunities over next few weeks
The Federal Reserve is essentially saying that the U.S. shot itself in the foot with its export controls on China (which was illustrated by Intel's recent staff layoffs), and similarly to Russian sanctions, they didn't quite hurt as the West thought they would
Hertz accelerates sales of Tesla vehicles as value crumbles
The 10-Year Note Yield just posted its largest weekly drop since the 2008 Financial Crisis, falling 40 basis points last week
Berkshire Hathaway sold more stock last quarter than any other quarter in its entire history ($75bn). Now, Buffett is sitting on a record $277bn cash, after selling 50% stake in AAPL
The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran has rejected US and Arab efforts to 'temper its response' and that it had 'told Arab diplomats it didn’t care if the response triggered a war'
Nvidia is reportedly in the DOJ antitrust hot seat, oh dear and the entire world is long of it...
Auto loan and credit card delinquencies ... highest since 2011
#USDMXN Mexico another country with a 7% deficit of annual GDP
Now adjusting and following markets...
JPMorgan and Citi now predict that the Fed will cut rates by 50 bps in September, 50 bps in November, 25 in December.... >>>>>>>> which is NDEARLY ALL PRICED in already
Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway now own 4% of all T-Bills issued to the public… Buffett has ~$277 Billion. The Fed has $195 Billion. Warren Buffett is now a larger holder of US Treasury Bills than the Federal Reserve.
The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: The Sahm Rule recession indicator surged to 0.53 in July from 0.43, suggesting the US economy is in a recession. The Sahm Rule signals a downturn once the unemployment rate increases 0.5 percentage points above its previous 12-month low. After the unemployment rate https://t.co/LUrHjaii2q" / X
Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)
They also highlight that "the benefits of U.S. export controls, namely denying China access to advanced technology, may be limited as a result of Chinese strategic behavior. Indeed, there is evidence that, following U.S. export controls, China has boosted domestic innovation and self-reliance, and increased purchases from non-U.S. firms that produce similar technology to the U.S.-made ones subject to export controls." In other words, it's almost a pure loss for US firms who lose customers, revenue and market capitalization whereas the affected Chinese firms find alternative suppliers and China boosts its domestic innovation and self-reliance.
Intel suffers one of its worst days in 40 years as stock plunges 26%, loses $30M in market value after earnings miss (msn.com) this was in May ... US revokes Intel, Qualcomm's export licenses to sell to China's Huawei, sources say | Reuters
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