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Writer's pictureStéphan

#JPY matters for risk / FOMC key focus : labor market / G20 global tax talks / ArtPrice / BoJ meeting incoming



  • Artprice by Artmarket.com: 28th annual report - The Art Market in 2023. A new record number of artworks sold at auction. Biggest national marketplace: the USA. Female artists showed spectacular growth

  • Why did most markets #SELLOFF recently, blame the #JPY carry trade, #leverage works both ways (hence BoJ tomorrow is key - either way)

  • Softer inflation data set markets for a broadly anticipated rate cut in Sep, the equity market's focus has shifted to growth ahead of key earnings season/results and the ADP/NFP reports this week (and going fwd) will be key >>> so expect Powell to focus on 'negative' labor market momentum tom and going fwd to justify the cut

  • The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the "multivariate core trend" rate) fell again in June, to 2.1% and with meaningful shelter disinflation arriving in June, the declines in inflation are broadening

  • Baidu Launches New $28,000 Robotaxi In Wuhan, GOOG's version costs $300'000

  • GS turns tactically cautious on risk assets, moving equities in its global asset allocation framework from overweight to neutral on a 3-month horizon as equities performed strongly in the first half of the year.  On a 12-month horizon, Goldman Sachs remains moderately risk-on and continues to overweight equities

  • PBoC did not stop buying Gold in May

  • Container freight rates are halfway to peak Covid levels

  • G20 finance ministers discuss a global tax on the super-rich. Brazil is proposing a global wealth tax of 2% that would only affect about 100 billionaire families but could raise $250bn to tackle the climate crisis

  • McDonalds sees same store sales fall for the first time since '20

  • WTI crude 2months lows mid 70's >>> is it time to 'long' oil related stuff ?...worth starting to accumulate, copper - see comments below from May 2024

  • A day of chaos in Israel as far-right protesters storm military bases

  • Generative AI requires massive amounts of power and water, and the aging U.S. grid can’t handle the load

 




May 2024: short-term price action vs long-term views.. #copper


Jeff Currie: “Long Copper Is the Best Trade I Have Ever Seen”

Robert Friedland: “forget China real estate, it’s the green shift”

Stan Druckenmiller: “Copper is a pretty simple story, takes about 12 years, greenfield to produce copper, and you got EVs, the grid, data centers, and believe it or not munitions”.








This article is an analysis of how the Chinese central bank (PBoC) buys gold in London from Western bullion banks. Because the bullion banks take care of the gold transport for the PBoC, the shipments from London to Beijing are disclosed in UK customs data. The customs data reveals that the PBoC continued to buy gold in May—when it communicated to the market it discontinued buying—at a rate of 53 tonnes. The PBoC stated it stopped buying to dampen the gold price so it could acquire more gold.







WTI vs BP (one can use many other names)


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