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Writer's pictureStéphan

Key ISM services up in June & GS upped Q3 U.S GDP / VIX (always the key) from 60 to 30 leads turn around / N225 +10% off y'days lows / Breathe, but vol to remain elevated



  • Berkshire (after his AAPL sales in Q2) now own 4% of all T-Bills issued to the public, Buffet owns ~$277bn and the Fed has $190bn

  • ISM Services: index rebounded to 51.4 in July (48.8 in June), business activity, new orders, and employment ticked up >>> kicked yesterday's recovery in equity off lows (U.S shor-term rates well off yesterdays lows, 2s inversion curve etc, together with wall street officials calling for rate cuts, which pushed VIX back down to current levels from 60+ near yesterday U.S opening levels. N225 10pct of lows yesterday, VIX around 30, markets will remain somewhat volatile >>> A trading market!! no need to be married with any particular short-term views!! sentiment/VIX/SOFR can change very quickly

  • Goldman: We boosted our U.S Q3 GDP forecast to +2.6%

  • Anoher example, that a NIKKEI index (can) trade like a small cap, down and up 10pct within 24-36hours #riskmanagement >>> so far it's all been about equity risk, very little about #credit which should really be (at least part of) the focus

  • Cryptoverse: Trump's bitcoin stockpile plan stirs debate

  • AUTHERS: “.. The Fed will not want to admit an error, or risk causing panic, by cutting fed funds before its next scheduled meeting in September, so life looks likely to be tough for a while. .. The concern should be whether such a sudden downdraft will create leveraged losses that could cause a cascade.”

  • Elon Musk’s misinformation machine made the horrors of Southport/UK much worse

  • #BTC a reminder that it is just another risky, leveraged asset, that still isn't a currency, still isn't a payment system nor a store of value... The great 'halving' story and new ETF entries with institutional money was the top of the story last 3months... >>> at the end of the day, long crypto, is long excess liquidity and in reality short vol/VIX etc

  • Rio Tinto-backed start-up seeks funds for lithium breakthrough to cut reliance on China. Analysts say new techniques could double production of key battery material and have similar impact to shale on oil sector

  • #GOOG Google just lost the biggest tech antitrust case in decades

  • Trading platforms return after going down amid global stock turmoil, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, and TD Ameritrade, all suffered from technical issues, some lasted hours yesterday

  • SPX Forward PE’s still close to 22, cheaper but not a cheap market

 

Cryptoverse: Trump's bitcoin stockpile plan stirs debate (msn.com) >>> stories doing the rounds lately, fits nicely with MMT debasement stories about Trump, policies on steroids. Vance ( Rebekah Mercer's man) appointed as his official puppet


This was THE key on the day to kick start a bounce-change very short-term sentiment







Still up 100pct on the year though!








NIKKEI







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