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Lagarde, Orcel / 1mo vs 3mos U.S Tbills / SPX 4150-4200 resistance still / UK, EU inflation





  • UK inflation 10.1% >> still more than sticky!, even though BoE and UK government been promising inflation will head lower...This is from the UK Office of Statistics: "The largest contributor to the rise in food inflation was bread and cereals, for which average prices rose by 19.4% in the year to March 2023

  • U.S 1m T-bill yields vs 3m T-bill yields have never been this inverted >>> avoid Jun expiries!!..common sense IMHO (risk management..)..>>> concerns about the debt ceiling debacle coming sooner rather than later as well as growing collateral shortages

  • U.S tax collections for the year are running basically on top of the previous year, despite the 7.3% surge in nominal GDP >>> disappointing tax harvest for Treasury thus far (could change)/Thread - GS - A US debt ceiling crisis might be closer than you think. Weak tax receipts means drop-dead date is rapidly approaching

  • Bank collapses in early March prompted traders to go from pricing in fed funds rate of 5.35% to 4.75% for next month’s Fed meeting … since, those estimates have climbed back up to 5.05%

  • Feds Bullard: Sees restrictive policy rate between 5.5% and 5.75 range

  • Lagarde : Europe’s Top Central Banker Paints Bleak Picture of West in Decline (inflationary)

  • India to have 2.9 million more people than China by mid-2023, UN estimate shows

  • ‘Gruyère’ becomes a generic name in United States

  • Allianz puts N26 stake up for sale at $3 bln discounted valuation - FT

 

Markets :
  • The #Moveindex just going to catch down to the VIX (not the other way around, as many were talking about-expecting not long ago..), hence the big short equity vs bonds many seem to be trapped in right now

  • Copper stockpiles hit lowest in 18 years - Thread-chart

  • SPX500 4150-4200 resistance still - saxo charts below and podcast below - Banks have been rapidly tightening credit card standards of late too

  • USDollar strength picking up a little on higher yields, higher rates expectations again, watch out if US>D goes decently bid, NQ should correct lower too. JPY weaker still on higher yields globally

  • GOLD, Silver, giving way, profit taking, on higher yields/inflation expectations

 





this is a fantastic AI podcast


GS - While the data are still very preliminary, weak tax collections so far in April suggest an increased probability that the debt limit deadline will be reached in the first half of June. We have been projecting that Treasury could operate without a debt limit increase until early August






The Davis Downside Dossier (yorkshirebylines.co.uk) Shocking Brexit lies - nothing new mind..


No no no..


would be welcome for inflation !









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