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Writer's pictureStéphan

Last week, #SPX negative gamma, #VIX up and #JPY up / Trump 2.0 diff than 1.0 / Biden pulls out, endorses Harris



  • Week ahead : Trump trade on/off, 20% of SPX companies report earnings this week, and most important data probably U.S PCE on Friday

  • Biden abandons his re-election bid, endorses Kamala Harris, his withdrawal resets the contest ? Dems will try not to contest, but.. any new surprise nomination ? Obama ? In many ways, risk is Trump goes much more vocal again, he really wanted to be on the ticket vs Biden, this possibly changes his attitude, Trump will/could push full on 'tariffs' on everyone he doesn't like and this will not be welcome

  • China cut short and long-term rates by 10 basis points on Monday, with the central bank saying it was aiming to support growth, in a debt driven world, reforms maybe, but choice often goes to back to more debt and cutting rates

  • Trump says he knows nothing about ‘seriously extreme’ Project 2025 that mirrors many of his proposed policies, Trump 2.0 would not play out like Trump 1.0 in markets.

    Both the domestic and global contexts have changed materially since 2016 >>> and in very short-term : Markets could unwind the ‘Trump trade’ after Biden drops out of presidential race (negative gamma can work both ways, lets see)

  • UK : The Labour chancellor should (could) sell Britain’s seized crypto assets to fund her economic plans

  • US small-cap stock funds had their 2nd largest weekly inflow on record. Over the last week, almost $10 billion flowed into US small-cap funds ('they bought the break-up')

  • Apollo / 'Half of the population has extreme long-term inflation expectations, which is a problem for the Fed and its credibility.'

  • SPX price action (and NASDAQ) : l

    ast week, markets shifted to negative gamma, potentially increasing intraday volatility going forward, particularly if we break sub 5500 SPX and 19500 NASDAQ), technical indicators are turning bearish, with all/most SMAs now negative, #VIX also jumped from hibernation towards 16 (from 13 area) AND JPY is still going


 


















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