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May 10, 20234 min read

LQD vs SPX gap / NFIB / Debt is the issue, not debt ceiling / Copper / Druckenmiller / US CPI next



-Pressure is growing on President Biden to bend in debt ceiling talks with Republicans, though the White House and Democrats are showing no signs of letting up from his no-negotiation stance

-''The real problem facing the U.S is not the debt ceiling, the problem is the pile of debt they are accumulating, the debt problem will never be solved if Congress keep rising the debt ceiling! ''..could easely argue that rising the debt ceiling will in fact push the US in some sort of debt or usd crisis eventually...

-AAPL earnings estimate lowered by analysts for Q2 and Q3, while price headed higher/Thread and chart below, if that's not some kind of weird divergence..

-U.S : Small Business Optimism has fallen to its lowest level in a decade - another 'recession' signal for many

-Global copper smelting slides to two-year low in April

-Latest quarterly update for Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) showed a net -22.8% of respondents reporting willingness to make consumer loans

-Why ChatGPT developer OpenAI is the No. 1 company on the 2023 CNBC disruptor 50 list

-Brexit causes 'problems' in rewilding Highlands, Trees for Life says >> another Brexit winner as ''vital EU funding cut off, and not replaced by the Tories''

-Glencore plans Europe’s biggest electric car battery recycling plant

ECB's Schnabel sees more rate hikes until core inflation declines too and Premature for Fed to call end to rate hikes with inflation still high, Williams says

Markets :

-Debt ceiling : in 2011 there were a few days of 'no increase' SPX dived 15%' and yes to rally again later on on the actual rise.. SPX was 1350..

-Silver to gold ratio: why the long silver trade makes sense

-SPX500 levels vs LQD divergence-gap slightly 'disturbing'. 4150-4200 still the top end of the range, all about U.S CPI and eventual guidance it will bring to Powell, recall, we have 70bps of rate cuts priced in for 2023 already..

-Copper and other commods still struggling (manufacturing data softer)




Warnings signs :

GS's Bobby Molavi writes: "...new job openings are the lowest they’ve been since Apr 2021, with Layoffs the highest they’ve been since Dec 2020. We’re starting to see leading indicators of repricing of credit like subprime auto loans falling to around 2% of all auto loans from around 10% in 2018. We saw German industrial production fell more than expectations in March on the back of weakness in the Auto sector. Oil has had its 6th monthly loss in a row. US courts have just seen 57 ‘large’ insolvencies in Q1 for the busiest quarter since 2009".






Totally agree! bring it on


Trying to find some positive news but... can only say that valuations are too high - no need to chase this 'market', stay invested in quality balance-sheet and have room to step in on a decent dip when opportunities come your/our way! ASSET MANAGEMENT | Pure Value Metrics



All too often costs to folks and communities become the issue and put the breaks on 'too' populist plans (plans goes through without thinking too much about details...)



Rockfall danger: Swiss village evacuated - SWI swissinfo.ch impressive pictures - rock volumes pretty insane - hope all will be well !


UK water company dividends jump to £1.4bn despite criticism over sewage outflows | Financial Times (ft.com) >>>> this is ridiculous !! awful, disgusting in fact >>> UK water companies were responsible for more than 300,000 sewage spills into British waterways last year.














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