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Writer's pictureStéphan

Mag 7's in an election year - risk #QQQ / Shipping rates soar / #HYG / NFP up next




  • After the floodings and the wind, snow and freezing temperature coming next week to southern europe >>> Finnish power prices surge to an all-time high today

  • NFP : employment matters to FED form here on, stronger/firmer data will upset the Q4 20023 consensus further.. (long QQQ and bonds, short USD) - median exp 170K for this afternoon (range 80k to 225k)

  • Global freight rate for containers has surged about 60% this week #shipping companies back in focus finally!

  • White House says Russia used missiles from North Korea to strike Ukraine

  • UK election likely in H2 2024, November ?

  • Investors poured $123 billion into cash funds in the week through Jan. 3, the largest ever to start a year: BofA, EPFR data. This comes as money market fund assets climb to a record $6 trillion.

  • US high-yield bonds have sold off at the fastest pace since March, when traders were worried about a banking-market collapse. Spreads have widened by nearly a half a percentage point since Dec. 28, the fastest pace since March 16

 


Markets :

  • Dec 2023 FOMO trades been challenged soonest we started the new year, as discussed plenty lately, way overdone on QQQ, rates and probably USD too. 150bps priced in for Fed in 2024 is a lot.. any stronger/former data and bonds will sell-off again, as we saw his week

  • SPX500 key support 4'650 area, best hold or else, QQQ is the lead after UST's

  • USDJPY easily through 145 again, other usd pairs at risk of catching up, USDCHF looks a little too low! been asleep, back to 0.9100/0.9200 in Q1 ? on a decent rates moves , anything possible, IMHO market stretched/short usd

  • Eurozone December preliminary CPI +2.9% vs +3.0% y/y expected


 






Few hot spots around the world





What a horrible, horrible story and what these folks had to endure, absolutely shocking







NASDAQ - more corrective action likely, all about bonds and data if stronger! stronger data no good to QQQ


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