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MAGA 'isolation' / USDollar softer / Recession risk on highs, tariffs shock in supply chains / NFP & Powell today!

  • Writer: Stéphan
    Stéphan
  • 22 hours ago
  • 5 min read


  • MAGA wants isolation, supply chain shock basically (not too dissimilar to Covid), something Bessent called a 'detox', they may well get it full on >>> We may be at the early stages of some kind of tectonic shift in global investment flows, with big decline in demand for U.S. assets from foreign lands (EU, China etc) after the fastest-ever pace of U.S. equity selling by official sector in single month and largest monthly outflow of U.S. assets by private sector investors in a year... #USD in trouble, MAG7 to LAG7 etc

  • Markets : VIX at 28 = about 1.40% average daily move in SPX500, it moved down 4.30% yesterday, that IS quite something, it has NEVER happened before on those vols >> got a little oversold, NFP this afternoon and Jerome Powell talks too (clearly watch what he says in terms of cuts, IMHO he will stay put and not talk too much about cuts, would be sign of panic, for now..). USDollar overall is heading south, sell any rallies still post NFP hopefully/stay short tactically, RISK is the RoW is going full 'anti US products, unreliable partner' etc...and liquidating US assets, repatriating to Europe and elsewhere, clear risk of recession with a big R....GOLD, but Silver in particular got hammered on long leveraged positioning, F9, margin call etc, EURUSD break properly 1.1250+ and this could get serious for the USD big picture, use options to hedge against a 5-10% 'politically driven-Bessent' move. SPX500 on 18-20 PE = levels around 4800-5000

  • BREAKING: In a shocking development Canada announces it will build a coalition of countries who share their values to build their economy and trade opportunities and will exclude the United States. “If the U.S. no longer wants to lead, Canada will.”

  • JPMorgan says Donald Trump’s tariffs represent “the largest tax increase since the Revenue Act of 1968” and could push the U.S. economy “perilously close to slipping into recession” by driving up inflation and crippling consumer spending >>> Trump could quickly come and do deals with China /TikTok etc. we shall see - market woudl rally quite hard if he does.. #SPX500, watch those news!

  • CHINA-US NEGOTIATIONS LIKELY SOON- CHINESE ADVISORS Trade negotiations between China and the U.S. are likely to start soon given President Donald Trump's penchant for dealmaking, but a quick settlement looks difficult, with China calculating that the U.S. position will be weakened by a deterioration of its economy and markets, Chinese policy advisors told MNI

  • EU Parliament approves delay to climate policies

  • Ever since the DeepSeek moment, we talked about U.S exceptionalism being over... thus U.S assets need to be repriced... >>> now Deutsche Bank says risk of a dollar confidence crisis

  • Trump admin thinks that Trump has the right to fire the Fed Chair and anyone else on the Board of Governors at will/thread

  • US CHALLENGER MARCH JOB CUTS RISE 204.8% Y/Y, US CHALLENGER MARCH JOB CUTS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE MAY 2020 >>> No surprise here. Challenger job cut announcements mostly Government

  • DETROIT, April 3 (Reuters) - Stellantis NV, maker of Ram trucks and Jeeps, said on Thursday it was temporarily laying off 900 workers at five U.S. facilities after President Donald Trump's tariffs were announced, and TESLA..plans to temporarily lay off 900 workers at five US facilities following President Trump's tariff announcements...winning?

  • Crude : The OPEC+ flood begins! >>> Oil, copper, silver, copper were all down sharply yesterday as investors price in risk now of 'global recession', but in many ways it should be contained mostly to the U.S, as the RoW should do better between itself and not be subsidizing the U.S economy anymore..

  • Trade deficits aren’t caused by foreigners. They’re Made in the USA — because Americans save less than they invest. That gap gets filled with imports/Thread

  • Ontario Bans US Firms from Government Contracts, Dumps Starlink Deal


 


The countries that didn't get tariffs:

Russia

North Korea

Cuba

Venezuela

Berlarus

Somalia

Burkina Faso, are, except for Cuba, which abstained, the same countries the US voted together with against the UN resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine







This all look a little scripted ?













 
 
 

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