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Markets need less Lutnick and more Bessent / China & US deadline day, others delayed ? / BIG UST long-end move

  • Writer: Stéphan
    Stéphan
  • 6 days ago
  • 4 min read


  • Markets : will only improve with less Lutnick, less Navarro and more Bessent on trade (and what they stand for on tariffs), Trump's tariffs insanity begins to fracture the MAGA cult and he is beginning to freak out, The European Union proposes 25% counter-tariffs on a range of US Imports to take effect beginning on May 16th, Trump ups the ante with China, deadline today >>> economic war at higher levels, Trump creating chaos, weakening alliances, the target remains CHina, always was, Europe on NATO & tariffs (VAT issue Trump can obviously forget about this moronic idea), Trump JUST DOES NOT WANT A TRADE DEAL BETWEEN EUROPE and CHINA... hence the stick between tariffs and leaving NATO (or Europe, Mexico, Canada, UK as taunted recently), trust diminishing amongst big 3, postpone RoA's tariffs discussions by 90 days and keep China is a bit what market pricing here at mom, get deals done, compromise, many Japan going for talks, Asian nations 'folding', Israel obviously too

  • USD : undecided, let's see how goes after US/China bombastic trade war, USDCNH 7.34-high fix! (possible threat of RMD deval and/or UST selling from China), USD/IDR all time highs >>> stay light in risk ahead of this event, both seem to be rather set in their views..Big risk-off days usually favor softer CROSSJPY's

  • UST move yesterday was HUGE : why ? hard tariffs/slowdown globally/more debt to the pile / 9bn to roll this year going to be tricky, let alone if Trump puts on another 2.5bn for tax cuts! / China possibly selling / big steepening again / fact is the move yesterday was off the chart almost , and long-end #duration does not really work as a safe heaven, Trump losing patience and everyone know it was a silly idea, you can't manipulate the long-end for long when fundamentals are deteriorating, even if you crash he economy (au contraire you will need to issue more bonds)

  • The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is considering suing the Trump administration to block the implementation of the president’s new tariffs set to go into effect Wednesday, developing story

  • US in direct nuclear talks with Iran, Trump says

  • CEOs think the U.S. is ‘probably in a recession right now,’ says BlackRock’s Larry Fink

  • Harvard : When a university with a $53 billion endowment needs to tap the bond market in this environment, it just tells you just how illiquid their investments really are

  • The European Union wants to abandon the American credit cards Visa and Mastercard, PayPal and Alipay – President of the European Central Bank, Lagarde

  • Jamie Dimon sounds the alarm bell on tariffs >> no later than 2months ago, tariffs were no big deal, 'get over it'

  • France signs a strategic partnership with #Denmark that reaffirms its commitment to Denmark’s territorial integrity and sovereignty #Greenland >>> yups talked about this few weeks back..EU can move fast when they need to !

  • Vietnam’s zero tariff offer has been rejected by the Trump administration. This offer “means nothing to us.”...just can't make this stuff up..

  • Global bank regulator group names BoE's Bailey as its next chair


 


This is important int he current trade war, retaliation and for the USD complex China's yuan hits 2023 lows on signs PBOC is tolerant of some weakness









The monetary/economic order is breaking down

The domestic political order is breaking down

The international geopolitical world order is breaking down

Acts of nature (droughts, floods and pandemics) are increasingly disruptive, and Amazing changes in technology such as AI will be highly impactful to all aspects of life







make it stop!





 
 
 

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