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Writer's pictureStéphan

Mex & India markets hit hard after elections / #JPYcarry trade / US diesel demand 26y lows / UST's rally again on weaker US data (ISM), more key data ahead, BoC and ECB



  • #MXN - Mexican stocks fell over 6% on Monday and the peso closed at its weakest to the dollar since November after the country's ruling party scored a surprisingly strong election result and looked poised for a super-majority in Congress that markets fear might bring constitutional change and diminish checks and balances >>> #MXNJPY has been a huge trend/carry trade for a couple of years together with USDJPY (and other JPY crosses) - beware of a sudden 'forced' unwinding of some of those JPY shorts

  • India election results 2024 live: Modi lead far narrower than expected in ‘moral loss’ for BJP

  • Weaker U.S ISM, deeper contraction, markets now looking for 120-140K NFP Friday, data generally softer, consumers feeling the pain of #highforlonger (UST's and USD reacted swiftly, risk/equity mixed >>>> FWIW, think now we are entering a time where bad news will be bad news for risk, economy weakening at faster pace than inflation, risk is FED on hold for longer, bonds can run, clearly a few NASTY market moves going on in few major areas (MXN, Nifty etc), so beware of possibly ramification in other places, unwind of owned positions etc

  • US diesel demand for March hits 26-year seasonal low, EIA says (weaker consumers), Atlanta Fed’s Q2 GDP Estimate is now just 1.8% down from 4.2% a few weeks ago…

  • The Fed Quietly ‘Admits’ Gold Is Replacing The Dollar As Collapse ‘Fear’ Predicted To Trigger A $15.7 Trillion ETF Bitcoin Price Flip/Forbes article

  • Sturdy central bank gold buying since 2009 and a rising gold price has grown the precious metal’s share of global international reserves to the detriment of fiat currencies. By the end of 2023 gold surpassed the euro and the next fiat currency to be challenged is the US dollar

  • U.S May ISM manuf lower : 48.7 (est 49.5; prev 49.2) - Prices Paid: 57.0 (est 59.0; prev 60.9) - New Orders: 45.4 (est 49.4; prev 49.1) - Employment: 51.1 (est 48.5; prev 48.6)

  • McKinsey estimates the energy demand from data centers will explode from 17GW in 2022 to 35GW by 2030, growth of 10% a year

  • Japan owns $1.2 trillion of US Treasuries. As Japanese yields rise, the domestic market will attract dollars away from US debt. "Rising long-term interest rates in Japan put upward pressure on long-term US Treasury yields:" - Apollo

  • Maersk raises 2024 guidance on strong demand, Red Sea disruptions

  • Swiss CPI pretty much in line and slightly below SNB forecasts, SNB should cut on 20th June after ECB this week

 













''Got to stay long some rare earth ETF for the duration''


The sure are



#USDJPY #MXNJPY #GBPJPY and #EURJPY - point is, it is all related, lets be careful on the carry trades out there #MXNJPY could be the trigger for more liquidation in other positions


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