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Writer's pictureStéphan

MLK Jr. day / U.S PPI softer / IOWA GOP caucus, and WEF kicks off in Davos




  • WEF : that time of the year where all the grandees meet in Davos

  • U.S potential fiscal boost, it's election year after all. Lawmakers backing a $70bn tax break deal (not that big in reality..) evenly split between businesses and child tax credit, should get support across house, but may bring back talks of stick inflation >> although after soft PPI on Friday, markets pricing in now 160bps of cuts in 2024, big banks and other forecasters all debating whether 1st cut in March or June

  • The annual Core PPI increased 1.8% in the same period, below the November reading and analysts' estimate of 2% and 1.9%, respectively

  • JPN 2y yields hit ZERO, R.I.P 'normalization'

  • Swiss inflation is now below 2% target, at 1.7% >>> room for CHF to weaken

  • Morgan Stanley's leading indicators for M&A activity shows the majority of indicators flashing green. HY issuance is up 89% y/y, liquidity is improving and corporate cash levels are higher. Deal announcements already inflected up +35% y/y; expect announcements to continue accelerating and completions to follow. Two years of extraordinarily weak M&A activity should drive up activity levels off a low base as CEO confidence builds

  • Taiwan’s Election Isn’t a Disaster for Xi Jinping—Unless He Makes It One

  • UK's Post Office scandal: TV drama writer warned 'nobody would watch' programme

  • Sovereign wealth funds and state pension providers are among investors telling money managers they’ll only commit in their upcoming fund raises if their capital tied up in old funds is released, according to people with knowledge of the matter


 

Markets :

  • Corn closed last week at its lowest price in 3years, and cocoa hitting prices not seen in about 45years

  • The Mag 7 now have a combined market cap of more than $10 trillion. Ten years ago it was just over $1 trillion. They represent ~25% of the S&P 500, nothing new but still, NIKKEI 34y highs (zero rates and a weak currency..)

  • Bonds looking for more, long-end rallies on softer U.S PPI on Friday

  • USDJPY dipped on PPI but right back 145+, metals liked softer rates overall and equity always appreciate softer rates!


 












this is just insane



EURUSD - holding up so far, key short-term levs around here 1.0925-50


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