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Writer's pictureStéphan

Momentum trading best ever time / RBA unch, but / UK's Labour on EU terms / Le Pen pledged to work with Macron



  • EU heads finish meeting with no agreement on top jobs, decision before 30thJune

  • 5 US stocks for 60% of SPX returns YTD, NASDAQ has not been this overbought since early 2018, Fund Manager cash allocations lowest since mid-2021 (BofA FM survey), Momentum Trading is having the most success in history, even surpassing the Dot Com Bubble

  • French businesses court Marine Le Pen after taking fright at left’s policies, French stocks and bond yields gained after Marine pledged to work with Macron if she wins elections. A new poll has her far-right party at 33%, a left-wing alliance rising to 28% and Macron’s a distant third. Christine Lagarde said the ECB is being “attentive” to market developments.

  • UBS offers to repay 90% to clients hit by Greensill implosion

  • Labour will seek ‘improved’ post-Brexit trading terms with EU, Reeves says

  • FT - Even Apple cannot explain why we need AI in our lives. A souped-up Siri and personalised emojis are coming but the most important question remains unanswered, and Apple scraps its Pay Later loan scheme

  • US households' real income expectations hit the lowest levels in over a decade

  • China’s tax man hands out decades-old bills to companies, hinting at funding shortage

  • #GDX Gold equities have rarely been this cheap in the past 4 decades

  • Fed's Harker said he expects one rate cut this year in his prepared remarks. However he noted that "two cuts, or none, for this year” were also quite possible."

  • Benjamin Netanyahu dissolves war cabinet

  • BoJ's Ueda kept the door open to a possible interest rate increase in July

  • The RBA did not consider a cut at its June meeting - but it did consider a hike

 



JPM DESK: “.. While we had thought the market was setting up for a pullback based upon the price action during earnings season, narrowing breadth, reduced HF positioning, and the potential for markets to take some profits given the almost 32% gain in the $SPX since this bull run began in Oct 2023 (38.6% for $NDX), this has not come to fruition and the near-term market setup points to another leg higher being more probable than a pullback. The macro data should support this hypothesis into a seasonally strong July ..”














EURUSD held where it should have for the bulls - range narrowing


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