top of page

#MOVE index! all that matters / Adani / All eye and ears on Powell ce soir, ECB & BoE tomorrow



  • Tesla EVs, even mildly damaged, are being written off by Insurance Companies - Insurers are increasingly concluding that a broken Tesla is too expensive to fix

  • ECB: Rising rates are making a substantial dent on loan demand -Loan demand to drop further in Q1 with "strong net decline" seen for loans to households - BLS

  • There was to be a historical energy crisis in 2022, then we had this : Eurozone’s Economy Outpaced China and U.S. in 2022...The currency-area grew at a faster clip than its global peers, reversing traditional positions/WSJ

  • Riksbank: High inflation and rising rates are testing the resilience of the Swedish financial system. English page not visible

  • Norway's sovereign wealth fund lost $164bn last year, citing volatile markets

  • ECB balance-sheet size lower again/deleveraging continues, lower by another €65bn in the past week to €7,900bn...Total assets stills equate to 60% of Eurozone GDP

  • UK and EU set for Northern Ireland Brexit deal. Breakthroughs on customs and court disputes

  • Adani rout erases $79bn in mkt cap from all 10 stocks tied to the billionaire’s Adani Group – a third of group value as completion of a key share sale failed to lessen concerns about Hindenburg Research’s fraud allegations

  • EZ inflation slowed to 8.5% YoY in Jan, more than expected, suggesting a more heated debate to come at ECB meeting over how much more interest rates must still rise as Core CPI - a gauge of underlying inflation that excludes volatile items - held at ATH of 5.2%. (BBG)

 

Markets :
  • MOVE index (bond vols), remember peak worries, peak inflation in early October ? essentially the index has moved from 160 to 100 - see chart below - stunning sell-off, financials conditions improved, USD sold-off and risk rallied, duration recovered hard with inversion of the curve...all the same trade

  • USDollar stays soft, not softer, all about Powell, if as expected, Mr Market will quickly try to push lower again

  • BONDS..various part of the curve at play..which will influence duration/QQQ one way or another

  • Equity markets, well within recent defined ranges, market wants to test higher on a 'soft' Powell >>> SPX500 3850 vs 4150 will cover it for now

  • Crude slightly softer, recent inflation data, average earnings and so on a little softer, but beware it is 'softer than excessively high levels in last 6months, it is not exactly much lower..yet anyway, and employment remains strong >>> so a bit of patience IMHO might be required for now, hence Powell likely to avoid to be too dovish, if at all, lets see how goes

 

PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) few nice charts there, as per usual




hell of a move last 3months, after 'peak worries' in October.. though it could continue relative to 2021 levels... decision time soon!




No surprise, like everywhere else..












43 views0 comments

Comments


bottom of page