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Writer's pictureStéphan

MS, GS and BoA on 2025 markets exp / GOOG / Lower Crude-RU risk / Warsh for U.S Treasury - probably



  • Trump Team Weighs Pairing Warsh at Treasury, Bessent on NEC >>> Warsh is a former FED hawk, not a friend of tariffs, unlikely to say Yes to all Trump wants, which more often than not is much higher tariffs and low interest rates >>> ongoing speculation regarding Trump team and what it means for markets (a lot being -as least partly- priced in already, including tariffs=higher usd, but it has hit some big levels like 1.05 EURO, 7.25 CNH etc already...), the Gilets Jaunes will be more active again in France into year-end, German snap election next, UKR-RU (lower crude price could exacerbate problems in russian economy) focus and Israel all in play in the background for the eventual 'talks & meetings' with TrumpTeam

  • Warren Buffett loves pizzas

  • Jamie Dimon says bankers are 'dancing in the street' after Donald Trump's election win. Wall Street is expecting a more friendly, deregulatory environment under Trump

  • Social movements: will the yellow vests come back in force thanks to a tense social context?

  • UAE becomes second-largest gold hub with over $129 billion in trade (overtakes U.K.)

  • MS's team with a 6,500 base case for the S&P by year-end 2025 and 7,400 bull case. There are some big ranges but a clear preference for US risk in all cases (see below)

  • Bank of America says the S&P 500 is statistically expensive by almost every measure

  • Dental supply stock surges on RFK’s anti-fluoride stance, activist involvement

  • John Bolton insists Switzerland should join NATO

  • China to address world’s overcapacity concerns by cutting export-tax rebate. Move seen discouraging vicious low-price competition and outsized industry expansions, and Chinese manufacturer profits could take a hit


 

Probably the favorite now...!

Seems bit late ! to then have to change anything... longway to go then...Confirmations are set to take place at the beginning of January when the new Congress begins. The whole point of these hearings is to get the nominees sworn in by the time Trump takes office on Jan. 20.







Perfectly normal stuff


Goldman Says ‘Go for Gold’ as Central Banks Buy, Fed Cuts in ‘25 - Bank reiterates forecast for jump to $3,000 an ounce next year - Trump’s policies may augment metal’s bull case, Goldman says



Looks a little shaky, particularly if crude oil heads towards $50



Porter Stansberry on X: "The formerly iconic plane maker known as Boeing is headed for bankruptcy. And the sad part is, this all could have been avoided. The demise of Boeing is a tale of casino capitalism, where corporate executives and their political allies can make reckless gambles with other" / X '''As for Boeing, in either case, we see no easy way out of its current dilemma. If it does the right thing, including grounding existing planes for safety checks, hiring more workers, and slowing down production to ensure quality and safety over short-term profits, it will struggle to generate enough cash flow to service and repay its $57 billion in debt obligations. And if it continues business as usual, it’s only a matter of time before the next mid-air disaster.'''








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