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Writer's pictureStéphan
May 24 min read

#MSCI China / JOLTS 3y lows / #Copper / Yellen / #CHF inflation up / #BTC weak Apr / BoJ busy again / Powell : wait & see mode



  • Powell : ''NO stag, NO flation'', why make such statement?.. is it like "subprime is contained" and "inflation is transitory".. >>> slightly 'dovish' but only relative to expectations, things ticking along, wait & see, bringing inflation down taking longer than expected (sticky etc), watching data, "unlikely that the next policy move will be a rate hike"

  • US job openings fall to three-year low in March, ISM was a little softer (note..43rd straight month of shortages in electrical components per the ISM), ADP was 192K (expected 180K for NFP Friday)

  • Global Central Banks purchased an ALL-TIME HIGH 289.72 tonnes of Gold during the first quarter, while ETF's had a net outflow, they all at it, data from MAS shows that its #gold reserves rose by over 4 tonnes in March - the second consecutive month of buying (Q1 buying 7 tonnes and total reserves over 235tonnes now)

  • BTC posted largest monthly decline since June 2022, down about 12% in April - other cryptos doing worse - classic peak on the 'halving' story

  • GS: Our US Utilities team expects US power generation to grow 94 GW between now and 2030, 29 GW of that driven by data center demand...

  • Autonomous taxis may have the most impact on GDP of any innovation In history

  • US Henry Hub natgas prices fall to 29-year low in April

  • Half of all copper mining is at drought risk with climate change

  • US and Saudi Arabia near a security pact

  • AstraZeneca has admitted in court for the first time that its Covid jab can cause a deadly blood clotting side effect

  • ‘Basel III’ bank rules could pose unexpected threat to Biden’s green energy plans

  • BoC Gov Macklem expects core inflation to continue to ease gradually-dovish

  • Chocolate lovers rejoice. Two days after suffering its largest loss in 65 years, Cocoa posted its biggest daily decline since 1984 and is now on track for its worst weekly performance in history!

  • Chinese tech stocks are up 30% in 3 months #contrariantradeJanuary

  • SNB cut too early >>> Swiss inflation higher than expected, 1.4% vs 1.1 exp

 


US and Saudi Arabia near a security pact:

• US will military commit to Riyadh’s security and provide access to previously off limit weapons

• Saudis will limit Chinese tech in the kingdom, build a US-led civilian nuclear program

• Saudis will recognise Israel if Netanyahu stops the war, and commits a pathway to Palestinian statehood




The Department of Treasury just announced that it is launching a buyback program from May through July. On the surface, this looks like we are restarting quantitative easing. I think this is precisely because of Japan-related risks that I’ve been highlighting since August. After a miserable, failed intervention by the Bank of Japan to stabilize the yen, the next step might be the Bank of Japan selling some of its Treasury holdings. 


Volatile data, but still...one wonders what's going on here, wait...Construction jobs collapsed, might not be too surprising where lending rates are....30y at 7.15% definitely put the breaks on a few projects...







There are over 4'000 banks in the U.S. ...



Right OK Cathie.....


Where do we go from here thought is the big Q


Barrick Gold beats estimates for first-quarter profit (msn.com) >>> profit rising 150% from Q1 2023, EPS 7 to 17cents, as price of gold remains high(er) vs price of production, these names will keep coming with beats, and analysts will keep revising higher



Many saying #China is #uninvestable right now - fair enough - won't argue - but when do ou want to buy any China exposure now or wait till it rallies 20-30pct and they all change their mind ? #MSCI #China


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