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Writer's pictureStéphan

Musk & Trump didn't go well / Harris lead up / 30y China turning / PPI slightly softer, U.S CPI up next



  • FED pricing update : 105bps of cuts priced into 2024. SPX500 50dma around here 5335 area ahead of CPI this afternoon, estimate 2.9%, still 'deflating'..?

  • Musk & Trump : ‘The dumbest climate conversation of all time’: experts on the Musk-Trump interview. Trump loosing it. Trump talked about ‘nuclear warming’ while Musk said the only reason to quit fossil fuels is that their supply is finite. Advertisers are abandoning X in spades, Trump media down fair bit too..

  • New swing states poll : (by Independent Center) Wisconsin Harris 49% Trump 42% Michigan Harris 48% Trump 43% Pennsylvania Harris 49% Trump 45%

  • Fed Bostic speak: Bostic said he’s looking for “a little more data” before supporting a reduction in interest rates, emphasizing he wants to be sure the US central bank will not have to change course once it begins cutting. “We want to be absolutely sure,”

  • GS: Buybacks August to Sep buyback season is 2nd best of they year. Window for buybacks has now reopened with estimated $1.15 Trn worth of authorizations

  • BOJ debated further rate hikes in July, prompting hawkish shift, so why is Japan’s BOJ risking to blow up the YEN carry trade and raising rates? >>> coz inflation has hit a 40 year high there as the currency has depreciated by 50% last few years.. Japanese consumers got crushed as they lose their buying power, chances are the crisis isn't over

  • For the first time since Brexit, a UK government is explicitly saying that it would actively like to maintain alignment with new EU regulations #GBP

  • UBS actively kicks out Swiss clients. UBS is massively increasing prices for those who no longer do business with the big bank

  • China bond market bubble 30y yields.. #duration turning could turn other yields

  • Goldman: US equity valuations have been and are still higher than the macro backdrop would normally suggest

  • UK : real pay up, employment down, int rates generating some returns for savers, even global investors having a look at UK industries (GBP super low), and encouraging inflation data - not all that bad!

  • Barron's: "#Buffett felt that the investment case for unloading the Apple stock was so compelling that he was willing to endure the tax consequences. Buffett essentially decided that he’d rather have cash equal to nearly 80% of the value of the Apple stake than the Apple stock."

  • UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said investors should heed last week’s global selloff as a sign of “fragility in the system”


 












Hardly surprising!




!!




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