Risk reduction ahead of Central Banks show + full steam ahead with earnings season
Goldman Sachs raise China equity index target, 'reopening' evolves into 'growth recovery'
Wilson thinks we will soon have the final leg of this bear market. "...Bottom line, we double down on our thesis, which is now out of consensus again, based on sentiment and positioning. With month end this week taking some pressure off active managers to keep chasing this rally that is based on a narrative that started in October from much lower valuations, it's time to fade it...A pause is very different this time given the fact the Fed is still doing QT and remains unlikely to cut rates in the absence of a recession. In short, we think the Fed meeting this week will be a reminder of that fact." (Wilson, Morgan Stanley)
Adani Rout Hits $68 Billion as Fight With Hindenburg Intensifies. Most Adani stocks declined again on Monday, flagship gained. The conglomerate’s dollar bonds also extended a plunge
Central banks bought the most gold since 1967 last year, WGC says
German retail sales collapsed by 5.3% MoM in Dec, French household consumption declined 0.9% QoQ in Q4, Spanish household consumption declined 1.8% QoQ in Q4. ...the European consumers succumbed to the income shock !!..Swiss Retail Sales Real (Y/Y) Dec: -2.8% (prevR -1.4%)
Macron's pension-reform plan is tested by more and intensifying protests, but the president is digging in
The Great British Walkout: Rishi Sunak braces for biggest UK strike in 12 years. Under-fire UK prime minister rejects talk of national ‘decline’ as 500,000 public sector workers prepare to walk out. And to make things worst (ok it's the IMF..), UK will be the only major economy to shrink in 2023, warns IMF
Traders are turning more bullish on the pound on hopes the UK and the EU will strike a post-Brexit trading deal for Northern Ireland, according to Nomura/BBG
Markets :
NASDAQ topped at 200dma, traded just above it/sucked a few people in, and sold-off relatively hard yesterday. Biggest earnings week in the season, today we are expecting Exxon, UPS, General Motors Co and Caterpillar before market open and Pfizer, McDonalds, Spotify, AMD, Snap, Amgen, EA, after the close. "Tape feels fragile at the moment with S&P top of book liquidity touching $3mm intraday today (ytd low)." - GS FICC
USDollar risk higher in short-term on a more hawkish Powell and past month-end flows / positioning too short $. CTA's model showing large long positions in EURO vs almost anything (which has been perfect, on the back of hawkish ECB etc and weak usd momentum)
UST yields, all about the 6-24months part of the curve, will Powell make the market rethink the cuts priced in after this summer ?, However, please note that Hedge funds have the biggest net short position on US treasuries ahead of the FED meeting/BBG
IF ever there was a time, now is time to fade a few things, it's all the same trade though! short #NASDAQ go long a few USDollars (cover some shorts..) and #steepeners on but tricky along the curves, which part of the curve, You are not alone if you do, Kolanovic doubles down on the consensus bearish call, says "YTD rally may fade". Others calling for a drop are MS, GS, and BofA >>> IMHO, reduce positions a little going into this big big week/ and early February, and see what comes, have room to add on silly dips/don't chase from here... consensus pretty clear, everyone expects FED to do 25bps and sound hawkish
Worth considering.. when looking for what has rallied hard in Jan 2023 : ARKK +25% ytd TSLA +50% ytd and the likes of BYND +30% , SPX500 up 5%
This is like... whaoo.. Adani Enterprises had just a $3.5 billion market cap pre covid pandemic in 2019, it's now near $40 billion, and that's after the plunge in recent week
Millions of families in leasehold homes set to get greater powers to buy them outright | Daily Mail Online it could be some sort of game change for many, that is fair to say
EURUSD sub 1.0750 will not be welcome by longs/CTA's etc - USDJPY would need 132JPY+ for a similar upset etc
Comments