May 25, 20233 min read

NVDA/Paralysed man walks again/Fed Terminal rate back to 5.25%!/ $.. / SPX 4200 'ceiling' / PCE next

So we have the SPX500 ceiling at 4200 that hel for 9months and the U.S debt ceiling
Fitch puts United States’ AAA rating on negative watch, citing debt ceiling fight
From 'science fiction' to reality: Paralyzed man walks again thanks to brain and spine implants,“It was quite science fiction at the very beginning but it became true today,” said Dr. Jocelyne Bloch, co-leader and a neurosurgeon at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland.... early days still, BUT amazing stuff !!
FOMC: "Participants generally expressed uncertainty about how much more policy tightening may be appropriate. Many participants focused on the need to retain optionality after this meeting." >>> we moved from 10bp cut in July to a full hike priced in now within 2 weeks..>>> Fed terminal rate creeps higher to 5.25% as Fed minutes slightly hawkish
MSCI emerging markets are also back to flat for the year - China reopening story pretty short-lived (+more about higher rates for longer?..)
FT-Gold : “It’s hard to push back against an asset with a 5,000-year history of providing wealth,”
UK set to win multi-billion pound battle with Spain for Jaguar Land Rover EV battery plant, finally some +ve news in UK
RIP Tina Turner - simply the best!
First private fully automated vault in Switzerland
Germany suffered a winter (light..) recession, fresh data shows, with first-quarter output dropping 0.3% versus initial estimate of 0%
Warren Buffett's shifting Asian portfolio. Geopolitics push 'Oracle of Omaha' to move away from China and invest in Japan
BOJ's Ueda reaffirms to patiently continue with monetary easing...plus ca change..

Markets :

NVDA up about 200bn$in market cap terms after hours, lifting the whole complex back, I know I know it 'often' doesn't mater these days.. but that's a P/E of 180 or so by now..
Everybody got excited about the break out in SPX, got sucked in, just to realize that the "fat and flat" narrative remains intact. The big range is intact, and for the short term, we are approaching the first supports around 4100..SPX500 - the 'other ceiling' around 4200. HangSeng down 8% in last 8 trading days too, EMG equities and CSI300 giving up 2023 gains too >>> again, megacaps doing ok, but it isn't that pretty underneath
EURUSD braking through key trend line support around 1.0760, KIWI got hammered, AUD following, USDJPY near 140 again, USDCHF finding it's mojo back above .90+, GOLD and other metals lower
ALL about UST's with 2's back t 4.40% ahead of U.S claims today and PCE tomorrow, UST's leads USD higher and eventually equity markets come under pressure, momentum and therefore sentiment can shift quickly