Week ahead, NVDA reports adn FED meets ECB and others in Jackson Hole >> The premise: Long-term interest rates (may) have shifted higher post-pandemic, yet the Fed has not officially acknowledged this shift, this could be coming this week, IMHO he will try to push back against rate cut expectations in 2024 - close call though, BoAML, JPM, GS all hvae bit of a diff view >>> otherwise existing home sales, US services PMI, new homes, durable goods during week >>> perhaps the most overlooked US data last week was a Philly Fed rebounding materially, is manufacturing sector (thus inflation) rising from the abyss ?
The ECB is set to send a letter of complaint to the Italian government about a 40% windfall tax on extra profits announced in a surprise move 2 weeks ago, Corriere della Sera reports
BofA's Hartnett calls last week's China data "shocking" and warned of a credit event that would crash markets and REQUIRE a coordinated response".
The Russian space agency has revealed its Luna-25 spacecraft has crashed into the moon
"We’ve spent more than a decade trying to avoid a recession by propping things up with near free money, but little good has it done us"/ Times article
US yields keep rising as international demand fades
China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next? The economic model that took the country from poverty to great-power status seems broken, and everywhere are signs of distress/WSJ, over the weekend : banks pushed to support the economy: China again pushed banks to support the flagging economy with increased lending and urged adjustment and policy optimization for home mortgages, the PBOC said. Beijing also plans to allow local governments to sell 1.5 trillion yuan ($206 billion) of special bonds to help repay debt, Caixin reported. Banks are set to cut their key lending rates further, and cut rates less than what markets expected today (thus not helping markets)...."Zombification" is increasing among property developers in China
China urges BRICS to become geopolitical rival to G7
OPEC is now producing as much oil per day as they did in 2009. Except, global demand is up over 20% since then
A major reason for German weakness, the FT notes, "is the global downturn in manufacturing, which hits Germany disproportionately hard as the sector contributes a fifth of its overall output — almost double the level of the US, France and the UK."
FT-Interesting article about Ecuador's dollarization experience. Jácome notes that "dollarisation does not necessarily imply fiscal discipline", and later discusses "the favourable international environment" for Ecuador during this period/Thread
Brazil develops tropical wheat
Is the AI boom already over? Generative AI tools are generating less interest than just a few months ago
Germany's PPI decreased to -1.10% in July, much lower than than consensus -0.2%, YoY, PPI have dropped 6% in July of 2023. Consensus of-5.1%, welcome but expected news
Hilary is the first tropic storm to hit Southern California in 84 years
Markets :
Equity markets : seasonal weakness on higher vol, triggered by bond volatility, higher for longer yields, Jackson Hole comes at a pretty pivotal times for markets
MSCI China : most closely tracked Chinese Eq benchmarks close to setting new 2023 low
2 weeks around Jackson Hole can bring some big swings in markets
USDollar firmer in most parts, sitting at pretty critical levels/resistance, hasn't react much to recent more in UST yields higher, delayed reaction?
Bonds, duration, supply, QT and so on the story still - Bridgewater interview below
Warren Buffett on LTCM: "We were getting calls on Sunday from people that had portfolios in trouble… You may not get the chance very often, but any calls on Sunday, you’re probably going to make money on... All you have to do is make sure you’re the callee and not the caller."
We've eluded to it for a while, debt issue, debt spiral, treasury issuance, QT and so on, the whole 'liquidity' issue put a lot more eloquently in this 20mis podcast, its from early Aug, explains price actions this month.. and few cracks appearing.. but nonetheless worth a listen What Ever Happened to the Liquidity Hole? - YouTube bridgewater's Greg Jensen
The British Art Scene Feels Brexit Bite (politicshome.com) brexit fail(s)
For the first time in modern history, Britain is no longer manufacturing the fertilisers which keep us all alive. Yet no-one even seems to have noticed..
Will Hurd on candidates defending Trump: ‘Kissing his butt is not going to help you’ | The Hill and Is Trump going down? (prospectmagazine.co.uk)
SPX500 - trend from March broken - might well bounce a bit from here - market in 'sell the rally-reduce risk' mood - all about data, China, Jackson Hole
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