On the first day of Christmas, my true love sent to me...A partridge in a pear tree
Core PCE came in slightly softer, but broadly speaking as expected, Chicagp PMI surprised on topside, coming in at 55.8! (expected 44) and Initial claims 218K, with continuing claims hitting a high of 1.927mio >>> afte a huge rally in SPX500, it has been trading a range of 4520/80 last 2weeks, on big expectations of rates cuts in 2024, FED (march) and ECB all but priced in to cut (April), so next push/impulse will have to come from somewhere else (earnings, macro etc)
Crude oil fell 3pct after OPEC+ announced further cuts in '24, bur few crakcs appeared, when OPEC announced that individual countries would announce their own cuts
"The planet is tired of climate agreements that were not fulfilled" Brazil's President Lula urges world leaders to take "concrete actions" to fight climate change
US ‘profoundly’ worried over Turkey’s financial links to Hamas
Electric vehicles have nearly 80% more problems and are generally less reliable than cars propelled by conventional internal combustion engines/consumer report
The average price of a used Tesla has declined 16 months in a row, moving from a record high of $67,900 in July 2022 to a record low of $39,002 today (-43%)
Markets :
EURUSD bulls will have to consider whether the ECB is not about to cut before FED in'24
Huge rally in bonds, long-end dropped nearly 80bps, a lot of cuts got priced in for 2024 alread and thus pushed pretty much every assets higher, SPX rallied 9pct in Nov, USD dropped about 3%, Gold gained the same amount, SIlver, BTC gained 10% etc, look for some consolidation in December
Crude dropped about 8% on the month, OPEC cut production but was mostly expected, U.S oil production rises to fresh record
SPX500 closed at 4'567 yesterday- same level as 30th November 2021 !
Worse month, and suddenly....best month since 1985 for U.S bonds, up 4% or so in Nov
We now have -120- bps of cuts priced in for both FED and ECB in2024, has moved 40bps this week alone !!
Known known - but ther you go, it is big nonetheless >>> A coming wave of refinancings in a market is certainly important to investors and bankers, of course. But the worst fears about maturity walls are that borrowers won’t be able to refi their debt at all, and those fears rarely bear out. Two to three years is a decent amount of time, so companies can usually refinance their debt, work with lenders to “extend and pretend”, or plan some light creditor-on-creditor violence liability management exercises.
whether we rally to this or not, worth looking into crude related socks again, we r very unlikely to go lower than say $70 WTI crude, and stay lower..
Israel-Hamas war live: 14 Palestinians killed by Israeli strikes since ceasefire expired, says Gaza health ministry (theguardian.com)
Thousands of fake Facebook accounts shut down by Meta were primed to polarize voters ahead of 2024 (qz.com)
Turkey Footballers Who Chased 250% Return Left With ‘Empty Bag’ - Bloomberg amaing that still so many people fall for this kind of crap (excuse my french)
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