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Writer's pictureStéphan

Powell : cut was a "closer call" / The SPX500 6100 wall.. #VIX up / #USDBRL, INR, KRW up/ BoJ unch / PCE up next



  • Powell speech: It's appropriate to proceed cautiously, “From here, it’s a new phase, and we’re going to be cautious about further cuts.” , see more headlines below ! >> sticky inflation, economic picture still ok etc etc, so why cut ?, reset in risk, high rates for longer, AAPL on 40 P/E and every other super hot movers since election got hit #TSLA etc >>> US GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed next up today, then we have China Rate decision US PCE Quadruple Witching Friday, and this is not Dec 2018 (hopefully), but beware!, enough out there to be very cautious in near-term, we spoke about liquidity, concentration of risk, FMS cash levels, MOMO stuff lately..etc etc

  • Y'day was the biggest 1day drop for the S&P 500 (-3%) on a Fed Day.. ever

  • China Central Bank Warnings on Long-Dated Bonds Aim to Curb Systemic Risks

  • BoJ not convincing about Jan hike either.. >>> 160 USDJPY again?

  • Grantham's famous saying is: "The bigger the new idea, the bigger the new invention, the more the market becomes overpriced, the more it attracts euphoric." / Thread

  • #VIX from 13-15 all time lows to 25+ - its mechanic ! always is >>> ''buy a hedge/VIX when you can not when you have to''

  • The Dow closed down for the 10th day in a row, its longest losing streak in 50 years. All of its post-election gains have now been given back

  • China and India agree on six-point consensus as they resume high-level border talks

  • Italy's Meloni pledges financial discipline as parliament debates budget >>> decision before year-end needed

  • Turkish Ministry of Defense: We will continue to take preventive and destructive measures against terrorist organizations


 

Powell :


"Lower hiring rate is a signal of softening in labor market."

"Wages are at a healthy, evermore sustainable level."

"Labor market is cooling in an orderly way."

"We're not allowed to own Bitcoin ... we are not looking for a law change."

"People are feeling the effect of high prices, not high inflation."

"Best we can do is to get inflation back to target and keep it there, so wage growth is faster than inflation."

"I expect another very good year next year."

"From here it's a new phase, we are going to be cautious about further cuts."

"It's appropriate to proceed cautiously."














Gratham speaks very highly of Japan

- They are reasonably priced

- They deal with social problems well

- They have some quality businesses

- The Yen is "stupidly cheap"







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