Jerome Powell just revealed a hidden reason why inflation is staying high: The economy is increasingly uninsurable - read that again
Copper trades up on the year/Saxo Thread & Oil jumps 2% on falling US inventories, drone strikes on Russian refineries, Wheat prices up etc>> entering the part of the cycle where commodities start to thrive #BCOM up etc, IF commods really rally again (as we expect ), inflation will head up again
The Atlanta Fed's gauge of sticky inflation has risen to about 5% on a 3-month annualized basis, 3-month annualized change in core CPI moved up to +4.2% in February and After a record 25 consecutive months of negative real wage growth, wages have now outpaced inflation on a YoY basis for 10 straight months. This is a great sign for the American worker that hopefully continues >>> classic..now...Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday that inflation could face a bumpy return to normal after back-to-back reports showed that price pressures within the U.S. economy rebounded at the start of the year >>> not changed our view, and we remain in the 'high for longer' camp
As Milton said' inflation is taxation without legislation' (..for most folks, not all)
Samsung, LG, SK suspend US construction projects amid soaring costs
TSLA will fall to $125 and potentially as low as $44 within the next 12 months warns Wells Fargo
EURUSD implied vols (and others) are as low as they were in 2020, at which point vol exploded (Covid), now it will need a trigger again, perhaps Mr Market focuses on XAU leading USD weaker (debt spiral, usd deval etc) OR eventually focuses on a possible Trump 2nd term, in which he may withdraw support for UKR, amongst other things, and this could spell a disaster for Europe, in short-term USDJPY/BoJ is key for USD direction
As er February NFIB small business update, actual average interest rate paid on short-term loans eased to 8.7% (from about 10% 3mos ago)
Great 30y UST auction last night, it stopped through by 2.1bp, showing signs of duration extension, auction benefited from higher yields recently (up 20bps in a week)
"For the first time since 2021, options volume now surpass shares volume in US single stocks."/GS.....NVDA let that sink in 🙂
Markets : still loving the liquidity, big rotations on-going, miners & copper trade of the day yesterday, finally breaking up... commodities in general, even crude up.. these sectors have been massively 'hated' and left behind for a long while..BoJ,next week, JPY still looking bid (ish) in the face of higher U.S yields
Jerome Powell just revealed a hidden reason why inflation is staying high: The economy is increasingly uninsurable (msn.com)
After years of don't worry it's transitory..
Ole S Hansen on X: "#Copper trades up on the year with traders now focusing on the Aug high at $4.024/lb. Supported by a tightening supply outlook as Chinese smelters discuss potential production cuts in order to lift processing fees, badly hurt by competition and lack of supply https://t.co/It6w5SK5zB" / X (twitter.com)
David Sheppard on X: "Ukraine going after Russian oil refineries potentially reflects some understandable frustration with the West’s soft-pedal approach to crimping Moscow’s energy revenues But if Russian refined fuel exports fall substantially, impact on pump prices may become headache for Biden" / X (twitter.com)
Ole S Hansen on X: "Paris milling #wheat: While the old crop contract (May24) remains in a downtrend, recently hitting a four-year low at €188 before bouncing, the new crop Dec24 contract has established a potential double bottom at €204, confirmed if it manages to hold €212 support https://t.co/qIhyil1Vdn" / X (twitter.com)
Jeff Weniger on X: "1/10 Forget Currency Wars. Enter the Pension Wars. Thread." / X (twitter.com) well worth a read
Lisa Abramowicz on X: "The Atlanta Fed's gauge of sticky inflation has risen to about 5% on a 3-month annualized basis. Inflation is moving in the wrong direction for the Fed, so it's interesting that the market's base case is still that the Fed is going to cut rates by about 100bp by January 2025. https://t.co/gxIUNrusBT" / X (twitter.com)
MXN - good point ! Robin Brooks on X: "Markets are completely ignoring the looming US election and possibility of a second Trump term. There's a high likelihood that Trump will go after Mexico as a backdoor for China exports to the US. Meanwhile, this is implied volatility in Mexico's Peso. This is beyond complacent. https://t.co/RmRxoHT9K9" / X (twitter.com)
USDJPY - little bit of a H&S there - BoJ tweak and 140 USDJPY ???
NASDAQ - great trend - we all know the levels it needs to hold for the momentum bulls
XAGUSD - still $25.5/26+ required on weekly basis or even monthly will help!
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