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Writer's pictureStéphan

Powell, high maybe not so long / Refunding 'dovish' / VIX down, risk rally / APPL next up



  • AAPL : The largest company in the world reports later on today

  • U.S Treasury refunding (more issuance in short-end, less long-end, rebuild the TGA using RRP now..and get ready for an election year..probably keeping liquidities aplenty) ..came in slightly below 'feared levels', long-end rallied ahead of FOMC which was painted as perhaps 'high for not quite as long as feared', although the text didn't change much at all

  • ECB's Knot: Policy rates now are at a good 'cruising altitude' >>> given data, ECB is pretty much done IMHO, German data showing rise in claims, unemployment rising

  • Japan unveils $113-billion package to cushion inflation, Japan PM Kishida says will push firms to achieve higher wage hikes next year and eventually drop YCC in Jan or Feb ?

  • Toyota has stated that from January 1, most hourly manufacturing workers (in the U.S) will experience a wage increase of approximately 9%,

  • Signa Development Selection AG bonds lost about half their value on concern the company, part of Austrian billionaire Rene Benko’s sprawling real estate empire, is running low on cash

  • SBF fraud trial begins closing arguments

  • Trump trial document may prove he knew he lost election: Legal analyst

  • FT-Media today stops politicians facing both ways on divisive issues

 

Markets :
  • Post Powell fear puke : VIX is not SPX500, but the last time VIX was here, SPX500 was 4'350 and long-end rallies on less Treasury issuance announcement

  • UST 10's dropped relatively sharply (in an oversold market..) to now 4.74%

  • EUROstoxx50 back near top of down channel, a bounce in a bear market must make lower lows to confirm bearish view, SPX500 back above 200dma ahead of AAPLE, Nasdaq100 back above those previous lows 14'500/700 area

  • UST's whole curve beyond 1y back below 5% - markets were oversold in short-term, nice reaction on Powell who may or may not, probably won't hike

 

















Too many bears?














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