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Writer's pictureStéphan

Powell : inflation still too high / 10's UST near 5% / Gold, CHF up / EURStoxx50 & others soft(er)



  • Powell was initially read as dovish by 'the machines', various comments (see below, eventually pushed UST 10's to near 5%, 30's 5.10%, equity markets couldn't hold, particularly with higher crude prices too. SPX500 getting nearer to the 200dma again in low 4200's area, depending on whether you take cash or futures pricing.. Nasdaq's recent lows around 14'500 in sight, DAX has broken down through those lows made at the same time, so has the EUROstoxx50. GOLD and CHF the only winner in FX land still, JPY not doing much at all, only perhaps if/when credit misbehaves

  • Israel plans buffer zone in Gaza after Hamas war. Palestinians in territory ‘will never be able to come close to the Israeli border’, says minister

  • BBG COLUMN: In the world of oil sanctions, Venezuela is no Iran

  • U.S : A new survey from Bankrate.com finds 55% of workers say their incomes have not kept up with rising household expenses amid persistent high inflation, more strikes ?

  • BoJ to hold first long-term monetary policy review workshop on 4 December

  • German PPI -14.7 YoY....the most since start of statistics in 1950 ! MoM -0.2% >>> Yesterday’s Euro CPI shows that 78% of the components are decelerating. That’s totally unprecedented

  • -Shares of Tesla fell Thursday after the electric automaker released third-quarter results that missed on top and bottom lines

  • Coinbase is ‘confident’ a U.S. bitcoin ETF will be approved after SEC’s court defeat

 

Markets :
  • GOLD is making new highs vs most major currencies, USD next ?

  • VIX closed above 20 for the 1st time in over 100 trading sessions

  • Equity markets showing signs of weakness, breaking down, weal momentum, #TSLA the first of the magnificent 7 reported and the stock was down 10% yesterday..

  • USDJPY doesn't seem to be able to break 150JPY, CHF powering ahead, GBP relatively week, CROSSJPY's still pinned near their highs, watch #HYG weakens sharply or not, if it does, JPY should react too (too many JPY shorts?)

  • Bond markets, long-end struggling, term premia, lots of pretty worrying commentators talking 'Fed loosing control of bond markets', bond vigilante back etc..IMHO 10's towards 5.5% is possible, but we can't really go much higher (OR we go steeper from here again, Fed cuts eventually etc)...otherwise a lot of assets and bizz models will properly break

  • GOLD steadily higher...

  • BTC too

  • So we have Gold, BTC and CHF up... rest struggling

 



Powell:

"We've certainly got a resilient economy on our hands."

"It may just be that rates have not been high enough for long enough."

"It may take more time."

‘’It does not feel like policy is too tight’’
















EUROstoxx50



DAX




SPX500



NASDAQ100



GOLD vs USD



AUDJPY - very mixed feelings about JPY, staying weak on BoJ stance/YCC etc, positioning is quite short JPY, so any deeper correction in equity might lead to more credit issues and JPY may awaken




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