Week ahead : plenty of data all week, focus on France election, Bund-OAt spread leads markets, last week local eq markets lost 6-7% (banks got hit hard, CDS widening, highest levels since 2017 as Bund/OAT spread widened quite sharply, dragging EURO lower). USDCNH around 7.27 again, highest since Nov
Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets across France Saturday to oppose Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, which is predicted to finish first in the upcoming snap legislative election called by President Emmanuel Macron >>> tough crowd to please! hence pressure likely to remain into election, as Le Pen offers free money for everyone.. #OATs and the #MAG7 play the safe heaven role, the big are now3 bigger than any other indexes outside US..pretty astonishing
China's Retail Sales up 3.7% YoY in May (vs exp of 3% ), was largely offset by a smaller-than-exp incr in Fixed Asset Investment and Industrial Production
The Fed’s pivot from hawkish to dovish and associated easing in financial conditions have boosted expectations for US consumer spending, see Apollo chart below and yet Uni of Michigan survey slipped to 65.6 in June (exp 72
Goldman tweaks up SPX price target to 5600 but the interesting reading is in the upside scenarios, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel had been among the most bearish strategists on WS, he just boosted his year-end S&P 500 target to 6,000 from 4,750 while noting we are in the “early innings” of the AI revolution )
Goolsbee, Chicago Fed, cautioned that he still wants to see further progress on inflation, but sees the possibility of worsening conditions in manuf and agriculture, & Fed's Kashkari says 'reasonable' to predict December rate cut
The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 37% of the market’s total capitalization, far exceeding the prior peak of 26% in 1999 >>> Big 3 are bigger than any exchange outside of the USA
Netanyahu slams military plans for daily 'tactical pauses' to allow aid into Gaza
EU leaders meet to decide top jobs in Brussels, von der Leyen poised for 2nd term
UAE and India signed local currency settlement system
Xi Jinping claimed US wants China to attack Taiwan
WSJ-Pensions piled into Private Equity. Now they can’t get out
Week Ahead: Macro data, BoE, China policy verdicts, FII activity, global cues among key market triggers this week (msn.com)
General Election 2024 LIVE: Labour focuses on investment plans as Reform UK to unveil manifesto (yahoo.com) >>> #Hungparliament anyone ?
Goldman tweaks up SPX price target to 5600 but the interesting reading is in the upside scenarios.
1. In a “catch-up” scenario, the S&P 500 index would end the year at 5900. The equal-weight index multiple would expand to 18x, matching its 2018 pre-pandemic high.
2. In a scenario of continued mega-cap exceptionalism, the S&P 500 index would end the year at 6300 (+16%). Assuming a 16x NTM P/E for the equal-weight index and a 45% P/E premium for the market-cap index, the aggregate S&P 500 would trade at a forward P/E of 23x, 16% above today (89th %ile of 6 month returns).
Always worth putting your hedge on early! since last Monday's call, clients feel relatively well hedged, although feeling is a lot of investors have hardly done anything. EURUSD BIG levels to hold 1.05-1.0650 area, EURCHF took most of the strain last week, French banks, OAT, credit, all pretty logical
061624-Chart.pdf (apolloacademy.com) 'The consensus is very bullish on the U.S consumer' / Apollo , and yet US consumer confidence little changed in June, University of Michigan says - Sharecast.com
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